Dhaka's China pact will test resilience of its US treaty, reshape South Asia's strategic balance
New Delhi, June 23
Bangladesh Prime Minister Tarique Rahman is visiting China to cement economic and defence ties, with a fighter jet deal as the centrepiece, signalling Dhaka's apparent strategic tilt toward Beijing, which may risk undermining - if not contradicting - commitments made under the US trade pact.
Reports in the Bangladeshi media suggest that during his visit, Rahman may finalise the acquisition of 24 J-10CE fighter jets and a separate UAV technology, apart from other possible military cooperation.
Among issues included are discussions on Beijing's support for the Teesta River restoration project, and a keynote speech at the World Economic Forum's "Summer Davos" in Dalian.
Bangladesh's defence deals with China may undermine Washington's Indo-Pacific strategy and raise concerns in New Delhi, especially with advanced aircraft positioned near India's strategic Siliguri Corridor.
Dhaka's pursuit of Chinese fighter jets and UAV technology is not explicitly forbidden in the trade pact, which was signed by an interim government on February 9, just three days before the general election was held this year, igniting wide criticism.
While its wording stops short of an outright ban, analysts note that the clause creates a binding expectation that Dhaka will align its defence acquisitions with Washington's strategic interests. In practice, this means that large-scale purchases from Beijing could trigger diplomatic friction and even economic consequences.
Media reports, including in Bangladesh's 'The Daily Star' newspaper, had pointed out certain contents in the agreement that could upset Beijing, where the latter is trying to extend its footprints in the country since the fall of the Awami League government.
'Article 4.3: Other Measures' in the treaty mentions as its first clause that "The United States shall work with Bangladesh to streamline and enhance defense trade". Article 4.3 also stipulates in the fourth para that "If Bangladesh enters into a new bilateral free trade agreement or preferential economic agreement with a non-market country that undermines this Agreement, the United States may, if consultations with Bangladesh fail to resolve its concerns, terminate this Agreement and reimpose the applicable reciprocal tariff rate set forth in Executive Order 14257 of April 2, 2025".
Elsewhere in the document, the fourth paragraph in 'Section 6. Commercial Considerations' of the document says "Bangladesh shall endeavor to increase purchases of U.S. military equipment and limit military equipment purchases from certain countries".
The mention of "non-market country" and "certain countries" was interpreted in media reports as a US regulatory term used for China and Russia. As per the agreement, Bangladesh is also barred from purchasing nuclear reactors, fuel rods, or enriched uranium from countries deemed hostile to US interests. This effectively blocks nuclear cooperation with Russia or China.
Overall, the clauses can be seen as designed to anchor Dhaka in Washington's orbit, but Bangladesh now appears to be signalling strategic autonomy by leaning toward Beijing.
The contradiction lies in Dhaka's attempt to enjoy US trade concessions while deepening defence ties with China.
For New Delhi, this is not about Bangladesh's military upgrades but about China's systematic attempt to tighten its arc of influence around India, with varying degrees of success across South Asia.
Earlier, the Ministry of External Affairs told a parliamentary committee in December that New Delhi is closely monitoring Beijing's expanding presence in Bangladesh, particularly in strategic infrastructure.
Bangladesh is negotiating to acquire up to 20 J-10CE multirole fighter jets from China, worth $2.2 billion, with deliveries expected in 2026-2027. This would modernise Dhaka's air force and place advanced aircraft close to India's sensitive Siliguri Corridor, also called "Chicken's Neck" - the narrow strip in North Bengal that connects northeastern India to the mainland.
Meanwhile, Bangladesh is setting up a joint UAV manufacturing facility with China Electronics Technology Group Corporation near New Bogra Airbase, close to India's northern border. This includes technology transfer for medium-altitude long-endurance (MALE) and Vertical Takeoff and Landing (VTOL) drones, raising surveillance concerns for India.
China has already involved itself in infrastructure projects under its Belt and Road Initiatives (BRI) in Pakistan, Sri Lanka, Nepal, and Afghanistan, where progress has been mixed. Beijing is facing credibility issues due to unfulfilled promises and local resistance. As Prime Minister Tarique Rahman deepens ties with Beijing, Dhaka's choices will test the resilience of its new trade pact with the US - and reshape the strategic balance in South Asia.
— IANS
Reader Comments
Interesting geopolitical chess game. The US trade pact has that "non-market country" clause which is clearly aimed at China. Bangladesh is basically playing both sides - wanting US trade benefits while cozying up to Beijing for military hardware. It's a risky balancing act. If Washington pulls the plug on trade concessions, Dhaka could lose significant economic advantages. India should view this as an opportunity to offer more attractive alternatives rather than just being alarmed.
Honest question: why is Bangladesh doing this? The US trade pact was signed just before elections amidst huge criticism, and now they're signing fighter deals with China? 🤔 Seems like the interim government made commitments without full parliamentary backing. Meanwhile, the UAV manufacturing facility near Bogra is worrying - Chinese drones monitoring our northeastern borders is not a friendly gesture. India must prioritize trust-building initiatives with the new Bangladesh administration.
This is exactly what I've been saying - China's string of pearls strategy is real. First Pakistan, then Sri Lanka (Hambantota port debt trap), then Nepal, and now Bangladesh. The Teesta River restoration project deal is also clever - they're offering help on a sensitive water-sharing issue where India has been stuck. India needs to resolve the Teesta water-sharing treaty with Bangladesh urgently, otherwise China will fill that vacuum. Also, India should accelerate connectivity projects like the Maitri Setu bridge to counter China's narrative.
Let's be honest, India's own diplomacy in the region has been inconsistent. We took Bangladesh for granted after the Awami League government fell. Now when Dhaka looks for alternatives, we act surprised? 🙄 The US-China rivalry is just a sideshow - the real issue is that India hasn't invested enough in economic ties with Bangladesh. If we want to keep them in our orbit, we need to offer something better than Chinese jets and infrastructure loans. Start with visa liberalization and increased trade access!
We welcome thoughtful discussions from our readers. Please keep comments respectful and on-topic.