Dalal Street enters consolidation phase amid high volatility, low visibility: Experts
Mumbai, April 4
Indian stock markets appear to be moving into a consolidation phase, marked by high volatility and limited clarity on direction, as global uncertainties and mixed domestic signals keep investors on edge, according to market experts on Saturday.
Indian equity benchmarks ended the holiday-shortened week on a subdued note -- reflecting the ongoing uncertainty in the market.
The Nifty slipped 0.47 per cent, while the Sensex also closed lower, marking the sixth consecutive week of decline.
Despite the weak headline numbers, experts pointed out an important shift beneath the surface.
"In perspective, the market appears to be transitioning into a consolidation phase with high volatility and low visibility," Hariprasad K of Livelong Wealth said.
"While domestic flows and technical supports are providing stability, global factors such as crude oil prices and geopolitical developments will continue to dictate direction," he added.
According to, the broader market structure remains fragile but not decisively bearish.
"The 22,500 level is acting as immediate support, while the 22,900-23,000 zone continues to be a strong resistance area due to heavy selling pressure," he mentioned.
"Unless the index manages to sustain above this zone, the prevailing trend is likely to remain 'sell on rise' in the near term," the expert noted.
Ajit Mishra of Religare Broking highlighted that persistent volatility is being driven largely by global developments, particularly tensions involving the United States and Iran.
These geopolitical concerns have kept crude oil prices elevated, which is a key risk for India given its dependence on imports. Higher crude prices can impact inflation, currency stability, and overall market sentiment.
"The upcoming week is expected to remain data-intensive and influenced by both domestic and global cues," Mishra stated.
Developments in the US-Iran conflict and their impact on crude oil prices will remain critical drivers of market sentiment, he noted.
— IANS
Reader Comments
It's so frustrating! Every time we make some progress, something happens on the global stage—US-Iran tensions, oil prices shooting up—and our market tanks. We need to reduce this vulnerability. Focus on renewable energy and self-reliance, please!
Good analysis. The 'sell on rise' trend is exactly what I've been observing. I've moved a significant portion to fixed income for now. Volatility is too high for my risk appetite. Will re-enter only after a clear breakout above 23,000 on the Nifty.
As an NRI investor, this phase is actually an opportunity for systematic accumulation. The long-term India story is intact. Corrections like these help build a stronger portfolio. Staying invested and using the volatility to my advantage.
Experts keep saying the same thing every week - "consolidation", "volatility", "global cues". 😅 Can we get some concrete, actionable advice? What should a small retail investor like me do right now? Hold, sell, or average down?
The connection to oil prices is so critical for our economy. My father's transport business is already feeling the pinch from diesel costs. High inflation will hurt consumption, which will eventually hit corporate earnings. It's all connected.
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