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Copper Prices Surge 40% This Fiscal, May Hit $12,000/Tonne in H1 FY27

Global copper prices have risen nearly 40% this fiscal year, reaching around $13,000 per tonne by January 2026, driven by mine supply disruptions and inventory shifts. ICRA forecasts prices will remain elevated in the range of $11,000-$12,000 per tonne for the first half of FY27, with the market expected to stay in deficit through 2025 and 2026. While India's domestic copper consumption is projected to grow at 10-12% annually, high prices pose a risk of near-term demand moderation in price-sensitive segments. The medium-term demand outlook is supported by energy-transition applications like renewable energy, power grids, and electric vehicles.

Key Points: Copper Price Forecast: $11,000-$12,000/Tonne in H1 FY27

  • 40% price surge this fiscal
  • H1 FY27 forecast: $11,000-$12,000/tonne
  • Market deficit through CY25 and CY26
  • India's demand growth at 10-12%
  • Energy transition to drive medium-term demand
2 min read

Copper up 40 pc globally in FY26; H1 FY27 forecast at $11,000-$12,000 per tonne

Global copper prices up 40% on supply disruptions. ICRA forecasts H1 FY27 prices at $11,000-$12,000/tonne, with market deficit through 2026.

"Stocks in COMEX-registered warehouses increased sharply to around 498 kilo tonnes (kt) by December 2025 - ICRA Report"

Mumbai, Feb 6

Global copper prices have surged nearly 40 per cent this fiscal, reaching around $13,000 per tonne by January 2026, driven by persistent mine-side supply disruptions, declining ore grades and inventory dislocations across exchanges, a report said on Friday.

Ratings agency ICRA said in the report that tight supply conditions outside the United States and uncertainty around tariffs are expected to support prices in the range of $11,000-12,000 per tonne in H1 FY27.

However, it maintained that potential downside risks for copper prices cannot be ruled out in FY 27.

Copper market will remain in deficit through CY25 and CY26, as supply growth continues to lag demand, thereby supporting prices, the agency forecasted.

Tariff-related uncertainties in the US and the risk of renewed trade actions have led to inventory build-ups at COMEX and drawdowns at London Metal Exchange (LME), tightening availability outside United States.

"Stocks in COMEX-registered warehouses increased sharply to around 498 kilo tonnes (kt) by December 2025 from around 98 kt in January 2025, reflecting front-loading of refined copper imports into the US ahead of potential tariff actions under review in June 2026," the report mentioned.

Further, ongoing mine supply disruptions contributed to the sharp price rally in recent months.

Elevated copper prices are expected to pose near-term demand moderation risks, particularly in price-sensitive end-use segments.

Softening physical premiums in China indicated emerging demand sensitivity at higher price levels, suggesting risks of demand deferral or substitution in the near term, the agency predicted.

India's domestic copper consumption is expected to grow at 10-12 per cent annually over the next two years, although the pace is likely to moderate from the elevated 14-15 per cent growth seen in seven months of FY26.

Over the medium term, India's copper demand is expected to be increasingly driven by energy-transition-linked applications, including renewable energy, power grids, data centres and electric vehicles.

ICRA forecasted upstream copper entities to likely benefit from firm prices, supporting operating profitability, while downstream smelting and refining entities could face margin pressure.

- IANS

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Reader Comments

P
Priya S
The focus on energy transition is key. India's push for renewables and EVs means copper demand will stay strong. We need to seriously look at boosting domestic recycling and maybe even exploring our own mines to reduce import dependence. ♻️
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Arjun K
Good analysis by ICRA. The US tariff uncertainty is causing all this inventory chaos globally. While upstream companies will profit, the common man will pay more for electronics, vehicles, and home appliances. A classic case of global factors hitting local pockets.
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Sarah B
Interesting to see the data centre demand mentioned. With India's digital push, this is a massive growth area. But if copper prices stay high, will it slow down our infrastructure development? Need cost-effective alternatives fast.
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Karthik V
Respectfully, while the report is comprehensive, it feels like it downplays the risk to small and medium enterprises. The margin pressure on downstream entities they mention could mean job losses. That human impact needs more focus.
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Nisha Z
10-12% annual growth in India's consumption is still very strong! Shows our economy is resilient. Yes, prices are high, but demand isn't collapsing. This is a temporary squeeze. Jugaad and efficiency will see us through. 💪

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