CEA defends India's GDP data, says country does not use methodology changes to inflate growth numbers
New Delhi, June 14
Chief Economic Advisor Dr V Anantha Nageswaran has defended the credibility of India's GDP statistics, saying the country does not use revisions in methodology or base years to artificially boost economic output figures.
In an exclusive interview with ANI, Nageswaran responded to concerns raised by some economists over India's GDP estimates, stressing that GDP measurement is an estimate in every country and that India follows internationally accepted statistical practices.
"GDP is an estimate. No country can pretend that they have an accurate way of measuring the GDP," he said.
The CEA argued that India's recent GDP rebasing exercise demonstrates that the government is not attempting to inflate economic figures through statistical changes.
"If they had said Indian GDP was no longer 354 lakh crores but 384 lakh crores, people would have accepted that. That is what many countries do. In fact, we are the only country which brought it down," he said, referring to the revision following the change in base year and methodology.
"So we are not trying to use any of these methodological changes to bump up our numbers," he added.
Nageswaran said India's statistical system aims to produce reliable data rather than numbers that support any particular narrative.
"We produce reliable statistics. We follow internationally accepted methods and we don't use the GDP methodological revisions to bump up numbers artificially," he said.
"Our philosophy is to let the statistics speak for themselves."
The CEA also pointed to assessments by international institutions, saying criticisms have largely focused on methodology rather than the reliability of India's data.
"IMF, for example, they only questioned us not on the reliability, but on the fact that some of the methodologies need improvement," he said, adding that such improvements have since been undertaken.
Nageswaran further argued that criticism of GDP figures often reflects preconceived views about the economy rather than concerns about the data itself.
"I think the problem with some of these critiques is that if the number doesn't meet their expectations, then they are willing to call it, 'I don't have trust in that number'," he said.
Recalling the economic contraction during the pandemic, he noted that India's GDP data was widely accepted when it showed a sharp decline.
"In the first quarter, April to June 2020, Indian GDP went down by 25 per cent year on year. At that time, nobody said this is a much exaggerated fall. I don't trust the Indian GDP numbers," he said.
"If the statistics doesn't confirm my belief or wish that the Indian economy is actually in a bad state, then the statistics are unreliable. So I find this inconsistency difficult to accept," Nageswaran added.
— ANI
Reader Comments
I appreciate the CEA's defense, but we need more transparency in how GDP is calculated. The constant changes in methodology make it hard for ordinary citizens to trust the numbers. Also, ground reality doesn't always match the official data - ask any small business owner about their experience in the last few years. Data is important, but so is ground-level verification.
The CEA makes a valid point about the pandemic GDP contraction being accepted without question. That's because it matched the narrative of economic distress. But when growth rates are higher than expected, suddenly everyone becomes a statistician. This inconsistency in criticism is indeed problematic. Let the numbers speak, as he says.
Look, I'm not an economist, but when the CEA says India is the only country that reduced GDP after rebasing, that's a strong argument. However, I wish the government would also focus on employment data, inflation numbers, and consumption patterns with the same rigour. GDP growth is good, but 'Vikas' must reach the last person in the queue.
The problem is not just methodology but the lack of independent validation. India's statistical system needs to be more autonomous and insulated from government pressure. Having said that, the CEA's reasoning about the pandemic data being accepted is intellectually honest. Let's have more such transparent conversations about our economic numbers.
Great interview. The CEA has effectively countered the sceptics. If the IMF and other institutions only questioned methodology and not reliability, that's a vote of confidence. We should appreciate that India follows international standards rather
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