Bengal results: Exit polls show tight contest, BJP slightly ahead
Kolkata, April 29
Majority of the exit polls conducted by reported agencies on the two-phase Assembly polls in West Bengal have predicted a neck-and-neck battle between the ruling Trinamool Congress and the opposition Bharatiya Janata Party, but are hinting at the possibility of the end of the 15-year-long Mamata Banerjee-led regime and the beginning of saffron rule in the state.
According to the exit poll survey of P-MARQ, while the Bharatiya Janata Party is expected to win from 150 to 175 Assembly constituencies, the same survey is showing the Trinamool Congress tally between 118 and 138, and others, including Congress and the Left Front-All India Secular Front alliance, between two and six.
On the other hand, the exit poll survey of P Matrize shows the Bharatiya Janata Party's tally between 146 and 161, that of the Trinamool Congress between 125 and 140, and others between six and ten.
According to the exit poll survey of Chanakya Strategies, while the Bharatiya Janata Party is expected to win from 150 to 160 Assembly constituencies, the same survey is showing the Trinamool Congress tally between 130 and 140, and others between six and ten.
People's Pulse kept the Trinamool Congress's tally ahead between 178 and 189, the Bharatiya Janata Party's tally between 96 and 110, and others between one and four.
Similarly, the Janmat exit poll survey suggests the ruling Trinamool Congress could return to power with a comfortable majority.
The Janmat polling survey kept the Trinamool Congress's tally ahead with a comfortable majority between 195 and 205, the Bharatiya Janata Party's tally between 80 and 90, and others between two and three.
On the other hand, Praja Polls again had kept the Bharatiya Janata Party well ahead between 178 and 208, followed by the Trinamool Congress between 85 and 110, and others between two and three.
Similarly, Poll Diary exit polls kept the Bharatiya Janata Party ahead between 142 and 171, the Trinamool Congress between 99 and 127, and others between five and nine.
The exit poll by JV is the only survey hinting towards a hung Assembly in West Bengal this time, projecting the Bharatiya Janata Party's tally between 138 and 159, the Trinamool Congress between 131 and 152, and others between zero and two.
— IANS
Reader Comments
Interesting to see such varied projections - from BJP sweeping to TMC retaining comfortably. It shows how polarised Bengal is right now. Whatever happens, I hope the winning party focuses on development, jobs, and law & order. Enough of the political theatrics! 🙏
As an outsider looking in, the range of these polls is striking - one shows TMC at 178-189, another has BJP at 178-208. That's a difference of over 100 seats! Exit polls are becoming more of a guesswork than science nowadays. Interesting times for Bengal politics though.
The fact that most polls show a close contest is itself significant. Bengal has been a TMC fortress for 10 years. If BJP even comes close, it's a big shift in the political landscape. But I'm skeptical about the "saffron wave" narrative - Bengal's politics is very different from the Hindi heartland. Let's wait and watch.
I'm from Kolkata and the ground reality I saw was very different from what these polls suggest. People are tired of political violence, but Mamata Didi's welfare schemes have reached the grassroots. BJP's campaign was good but I doubt they've made enough inroads in rural Bengal. My bet - TMC will win with reduced majority. 🤞
Look at the methodology - some polls show TMC ahead by a huge margin (Janmat, People's Pulse), others show BJP with a landslide (Praja Polls). This isn't just statistical variance, it shows how different polling agencies are capturing different voter segments. The truth is probably somewhere in the
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