Bangladesh's 2026 Election: Awami League Banned, BNP Leads Jamaat in Uncertain Polls

The International Crisis Group highlighted uncertainty surrounding the polls, including concerns about the process's credibility and the risk of violence.

"Predicting the outcome of the 12 February poll is challenging because the electoral landscape has shifted so much. In the December 2008 election - considered the last credible one in Bangladesh - the Awami League got almost 50 per cent of the popular vote. While its backing has undoubtedly weakened since, it still has millions of supporters across the country. Which party these people decide to vote for - if they vote at all - will have a major bearing on the result, particularly in Bangladesh's first-past-the-post system. Recent polling suggests that the BNP has a narrow lead over Jamaat. Regardless, Jamaat seems on track to surpass its previous best performance in 1991, when it secured eighteen seats with about 12 per cent of the vote", the International Crisis Group said.

The 2026 election is the first since the fall of the Awami League (AL) government in August 2024. The election is taking place amidst a backdrop of violence and unrest, with at least 16 politicians killed since the election schedule was announced. The government has deployed over 900,000 security personnel to maintain order.

Up to 127 million Bangladeshis will go to the polls on 12 February, in the first national elections since Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina's government fell in August 2024. For tens of millions of them, it will be their first opportunity to participate in a credible election.

Key factors influencing the election is Awami League's absence, which has disenfranchised millions of its supporters. Meanwhile, the BNP's reputation has been damaged by allegations of extortion and corruption.

Moreover, Jamaat-e-Islami's influence is growing amid social media campaigns, anti-India sentiment and attacks on the Hindu minority.

The electoral playing field will be marked by the absence of one of Bangladesh's two largest political forces, Hasina's Awami League. In May 2025, citing security concerns, the interim government temporarily banned the party's activities until the ICT had reached decisions in cases against the party and its leaders for their alleged role in the violence against protesters the preceding July and August.

The Election Commission also suspended the party's registration. In November 2025, the ICT convicted Hasina of crimes against humanity in absentia, sentencing her to death. The troubling consequence of the Awami League's absence is that millions of its supporters have, in effect, been disenfranchised. Thousands of Awami League supporters have also reportedly been detained, some under anti-terrorism laws

The vote will still be hotly contested, however, with two main blocs competing: one led by the Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP) and the other by Jamaat-e-Islami. The BNP is historically one of the two largest parties and the Awami League's main rival. Last in power from 2001 to 2006, it has a wide network of activists and broad public support.

"But its (BNP) reputation has suffered over the past year, due in part to the widely held perception that its grassroots members are involved in extortion and other criminal rackets. Internal conflict over candidate selection has reinforced among disaffected Bangladeshis a sense that the BNP is focused on money and power, making it little different from the Awami League. As several people put it in interviews with Crisis Group, many think the parties are "two sides of the same coin," the International Crisis Group said.

On 25 December 2025, the acting party leader, Tarique Rahman, returned to Bangladesh from the United Kingdom after seventeen years in self-imposed exile. His first speech upon returning to Bangladeshi soil drew large crowds and swept negative coverage of the party from the front pages. Just five days later, his mother, two-time prime minister Khaleda Zia, died in a Dhaka hospital after years of poor health.

Her namaz-e-janaza (funeral prayers) brought the capital to a standstill; the huge crowd of mourners included not only BNP supporters, but also many ordinary people who had come to pay their respects to one of the country's most prominent political figures since independence.

The election outcome remains uncertain, with the BNP and Jamaat-e-Islami vying for power. The International Crisis Group noted that the BNP's prospects depend on Tarique Rahman's ability to unite the party and appeal to younger voters.

"The BNP's prospects will depend on whether he can bring the party together and enhance its appeal to disillusioned younger voters", the International Crisis Group said.

Jamaat-e-Islami, the other main contender, is Bangladesh's largest Islamist party. Heavily persecuted under Hasina, the Jamaat has been the major beneficiary of the 2024 protest movement, in which its student wing played an important role. Party leader Shafiqur Rahman has emerged as one of the country's strongest political performers, and the party's social media campaign is unrivalled, the group report said.

"As many Bangladeshis blame India for providing refuge to Awami League leaders, crowds attacked media outlets that some claim are pro-India, as well as New Delhi's consulates in various cities. In one particularly heinous incident, a mob lynched a member of Bangladesh's Hindu minority, prompting Hindu nationalist groups to demonstrate outside Bangladeshi diplomatic outposts in India", the International Crisis Group said.

At least sixteen politicians have been killed since the election schedule was announced in early December, most of them from the BNP. There is a risk of further violence targeting those participating in the poll, as well as reprisals against Awami League supporters or Bangladesh's Hindu minority, who are generally considered loyal to Hasina's party.

As noted above, the election is also taking place at a time when the police force is seen as ineffective, and incidents of mob violence are on the increase. To maintain security in the days before and after the vote, the home affairs ministry reports that more than 900,000 security personnel will be deployed, including police, paramilitary forces, and more than 100,000 members of the army. (ANI).

- ANI