Assam Polls: BJP Aims for Solo Majority, Faces Demographic Hurdles

Since assuming power in 2016, the BJP has repeatedly plateaued at 60 seats, falling short of the halfway mark in the 126-member state Assembly. In 2016, it ended the Congress' 15-year rule and established its political dominance in the Northeast, forming a government with support from the Asom Gana Parishad (AGP) and the Bodoland People's Front (BPF).

That year, the BJP's gains came largely from Upper Assam, North Assam and the hill districts, while minority-dominated Lower Assam remained largely out of reach. The party's reliance on allies such as the AGP and BPF became essential to bridge the gap.

Assam's Muslim population, comprising over 34.2 per cent of the total as per the 2011 Census, is largely concentrated in districts such as Dhubri, Goalpara, Barpeta, Morigaon, Nagaon, Hojai, Karimganj, South Salmara-Mankachar, Hailakandi, Darrang and Bongaigaon. According to the 2011 Census, around 61.5 per cent of the population is Hindu, while Christians account for 3.7 per cent.

The Scheduled Tribes (ST) population stands at around 12.4 per cent, with Bodos forming a major segment (about 35 per cent), followed by Miri (17.5 per cent), Karbi (11 per cent), among others. These tribes are spread across different regions, with the autonomous districts of Karbi Anglong and Dima Hasao having prominent tribal populations.

The BJP-led National Democratic Alliance (NDA) has largely dominated these regions.

In 2021, the BJP again stalled at 60 seats.

While it performed strongly in Assamese-majority areas, the party failed to make significant inroads into Muslim-dominated or ethnically distinct regions. As a result, its majority remained dependent on alliance partners such as the United People's Party Liberal (UPPL), which replaced the BPF in the ruling coalition.

The BJP's inability to cross the halfway mark reflects consolidation without expansion, shaped in part by Assam's demographic balance and the party's reliance on identity politics in a state marked by multiple fault lines of language, ethnicity and religion.

Muslims in the state broadly fall into two groups: Assamese-speaking Muslims of Upper Assam, often identified as Khilonjia Muslims, and those of Bengali origin, often referred to as Miyas, concentrated in the riverine belt of Lower Assam. Together, they influence outcomes in around 35 to 40 constituencies, making them a decisive electoral force.

Their voting behaviour, historically cohesive, had leaned towards the Congress. However, the rise of Badruddin Ajmal's AIUDF in 2005 partially fractured this bloc, as the party channelled Bengali Muslim identity politics in areas such as Dhubri, Hailakandi and Karimganj.

In 2021, the Congress-AIUDF alliance maximised this consolidation, ensuring the BJP's exclusion from Muslim-dominated seats while limiting vote splitting. The two parties have since parted ways.

Though the seat delimitation exercise in 2023 reportedly reduced Muslim-influenced constituencies from about 41 to 26, whether the BJP can overcome entrenched local loyalties remains uncertain.

Meanwhile, the Congress, now led by Gaurav Gogoi as the state unit president, faces an existential test. The party's tally fell from 78 seats in 2011 to 26 in 2016, before it gained three more in 2021. It is now banking on reviving its base among minorities, tea tribes, and sections of the Assamese middle class amid anti-incumbency sentiments.

The AIUDF appears weakened, with its influence declining even among Ajmal's traditional supporters, as younger Bengali Muslims drift towards the Congress or regional outfits such as Raijor Dal and Anchalik Gana Morcha.

The Raijor Dal, founded by activist Akhil Gogoi, has sought to position itself as a secular nationalist alternative. However, Chief Minister Himanta Biswa Sarma has portrayed it as a "Muslim refuge", which may undercut its Assamese nationalist credibility.

- IANS