Assam Polls: Sarma Predicts 90-100 Seats for NDA, Gogoi Sees "Wave of Change"

From allegations of infiltration and corruption to counterclaims of "desperation" and "oppression," the day encapsulated the fiercely polarised electoral battle gripping Assam.

Speaking to ANI in Jorhat, Sarma said, "He is a crackpot. A crazy person can say whatever he wants. He is a registered 'paagal'," responding to Gandhi's recent remarks alleging external influence, particularly that of United States President Donald Trump, over Prime Minister Narendra Modi and, by extension, the Assam government.

The Chief Minister also exuded confidence in the BJP-led alliance's prospects, predicting a tally of "90 to 100 seats" in the 126-member Assembly. Notably, the Bharatiya Janata Party is contesting on 86 seats.

The BJP's campaign narrative remained firmly anchored in issues of national security and development. Addressing a rally in Assam on April 3, Union Home Minister Amit Shah accused the Congress of enabling infiltration during its tenure. "The Congress government had surrendered this very Assam into the hands of infiltrators... Over the last ten years, the BJP has liberated 1.5 lakh acres of land," Shah said, promising intensified action if the BJP returns to power.

Union Minister Sarbananda Sonowal echoed similar sentiments on Saturday, stating, "The Congress party brought illegal Bangladeshis into Assam and settled them... The BJP government has ensured constitutional protection of indigenous people." He highlighted eviction drives across 1.5 lakh bighas of land and credited the BJP with restoring peace through multiple accords with insurgent groups.

Sonowal, while addressing a press conference, emphasised that under Prime Minister Narendra Modi's leadership, Assam has transitioned into a "symbol of peace, resilience, and progressive development," contrasting it with what he termed decades of "neglect and exploitation" under Congress rule.

"We have made it clear from the very beginning that we will not allow illegal infiltrators to settle on Assam's land under any circumstances. The BJP government is continuously taking action against them and will continue to do so," Sonowal said.

Assam Minister Pijush Hazarika reinforced the development plank, stating, "They built six hospitals in 70 years. We built 16 medical colleges... Now there are 32 universities." He also promised 2-2.5 lakh government jobs if the BJP returns to power, alongside expansion of youth welfare schemes and industrialisation projects worth Rs 5.5 lakh crore.

BJP National President Nitin Nabin took a swipe at opposition leaders in Silchar, calling them "part-time politicians," adding, "BJP leaders work full-time... committed to the people at all times."

Addressing a public gathering, Nitin Nabin said, "I am seeing these days that some part-time leaders have come now that elections are here, so they are roaming around. BJP leaders and leadership work full-time. They work committed to the people of the region at all times... You are going to form a government that will move forward in the direction of how to make Assam developed by 2047."

On the other side, Assam Pradesh Congress Committee chief Gaurav Gogoi launched a counterattack, accusing Sarma of desperation. "The Chief Minister even dreams of Rahul Gandhi's body double... the ground is slipping beneath his feet," he said, claiming a "wave of change" against "ten years of oppression and corrupt administration."

Meanwhile, Jorhat has emerged as the focal point of Assam's electoral contest, with Gaurav Gogoi transforming it into a high-stakes political battleground. Facing BJP incumbent Hitendra Nath Goswami, Gogoi's entry has turned the constituency into a symbolic clash of legacy and organisational strength.

Known as Assam's "tea capital," Jorhat's electorate comprises tea garden workers, Ahom Hindus, and Assamese-speaking communities, making it a politically sensitive seat. While Gogoi banks on youth support and his lineage as the son of former CM Tarun Gogoi, Goswami relies on his established grassroots network and development record.

Despite visible infrastructure improvements, including flyovers and healthcare facilities, issues such as medical staff shortages, parking constraints, and arsenic contamination continue to influence voter sentiment. Urban voters appear divided, while rural areas may tilt towards the BJP, keeping the contest finely balanced.

Furthermore, the Jalukbari constituency remains a BJP bastion, with Sarma seeking re-election after nearly 25 years of dominance. Facing Congress candidate Bidisha Neog and independent Dipika Das, the contest reflects a generational shift.

With over 2.1 lakh voters and a semi-urban demographic, Jalukbari represents both continuity and change. Sarma's commanding 2021 victory margin of over one lakh votes underscores his influence, but the evolving political landscape adds new dynamics to the contest.

The Dispur constituency has emerged as one of the most dramatic battlegrounds. BJP candidate Pradyut Bordoloi, a former Congress MP, faces rebel independent Jayant Kumar Das and Congress candidate Mira Borthakur Goswami.

Bordoloi, addressing reporters, said, "You can see how excited the youth are today. About 2,000 youth came here to bless me... You can see the enthusiasm; they've all come to support me... I have just put forward my vision as to how I'm going to work because Dispur is the epicentre and nerve centre of the entire administration, power and governance... BJP has built out a very clear policy as to how BJP is going to make the country very strong, united, and everybody should take notice of the country and Assam. BJP is working relentlessly to reinforce the Assamese identity."

Das, expelled from the BJP after being denied a ticket, has positioned himself as the custodian of the party's "original ideology," while Bordoloi campaigns on the "double-engine" governance model backed by Sarma.

The constituency's diverse electorate, government employees, urban professionals, and indigenous communities make it a crucial indicator of broader political trends.

In Sivasagar, Raijor Dal chief Akhil Gogoi faces a unique contest against NDA allies Prodip Hazarika (AGP) and Kushal Dowari (BJP). The constituency, historically the Ahom capital, represents Assam's cultural and political heritage.

Gogoi, who won the seat in 2021 while jailed, is banking on his regionalist appeal and anti-CAA legacy. However, the NDA's strategy of fielding two candidates aims to prevent consolidation of anti-BJP votes, though it risks splitting its own support base.

BJP leaders continued to emphasise infrastructure development, including embankments, medical expansion, and industrial investments.

Meanwhile, political rhetoric around identity intensified, with debates over infiltration, culture, and governance dominating discourse. Large rallies, including Amit Shah's scheduled address in Dudhnoi, underscored the scale of mobilisation.

Assam will vote in a single phase on April 9 across 126 constituencies, with counting on May 4. The BJP-led NDA, comprising the BJP, Asom Gana Parishad, and Bodoland People's Front, seeks a third consecutive term.

The Congress-led alliance, including AJP, Raijor Dal, CPI(M), CPI(ML), and others, aims to capitalise on anti-incumbency and reclaim power.

With sharp rhetoric, high-stakes constituency battles, and competing narratives of development versus discontent, Assam's political theatre on Saturday reflected a state at a decisive crossroads. From Sarma's aggressive attacks to Gogoi's counter-narrative and Bordoloi's youth outreach in Dispur, the campaign has entered a decisive phase where identity, governance, and future aspirations converge.

As polling day approaches, the question remains whether Assam will endorse continuity under the BJP-led NDA or pivot towards change under the opposition alliance.

- ANI