"Already in war of attrition": Analyst Tom Cooper warns of prolonged Iran conflict
New Delhi, March 21
Austrian aerial warfare analyst and historian Tom Cooper has said that the ongoing conflict involving Iran has already entered a phase of prolonged confrontation, warning that expectations of a quick resolution were misplaced.
"We are already in the war of attrition. It is a little bit absurd, but this is what happens when one is following or initiating aggressive wars without seriously considering military assessments and intelligence assessments," Cooper said while responding to a question on the evolving situation in an interview with ANI.
He noted that initial expectations of a swift outcome have not materialised. "This war was supposed to... end after three or four days with the downfall of the regime. And the regime is nowhere near collapse. It is still there, it is still present on the streets," he said.
Highlighting the resilience of the Iranian establishment, Cooper added, "It can still exercise violence against its own population... the regime remains brutal, and it is around. Nobody is going to get rid of it just like that."
He further pointed out that a section of the population continues to support the regime, complicating prospects of rapid change. "At least a significant if not large part of the population remains supportive of this regime," he said, adding that even in the event of major developments, a civil war scenario remains unlikely.
On the possibility of de-escalation, Cooper stressed that even a ceasefire would not end the conflict in the long term. "Even if it stops now, it's not going to be over in a matter of days... Iranians are vengeful, and they are going to seek to extract some kind of revenge," he said.
He warned of a cycle of retaliation that could prolong instability. "Even if there is a ceasefire tomorrow, we can already start our stopwatches until the next war thereafter," Cooper remarked, suggesting that tensions would likely resurface.
Summing up, he said, "So again, long war, not a short war."
His remarks follow the significant escalation in West Asia that erupted after the US-Israeli strikes on Iran on February 28, which resulted in the death of Iran's former Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei and senior military figures. This prompted retaliatory drone and missile strikes by Iran against Israel and US assets in the Gulf nations.
— ANI
Reader Comments
The analyst makes a grim but realistic point about the cycle of revenge. It's a lesson for all powers – military action without a clear political endgame just sows the seeds for the next conflict. Hope diplomacy gets a real chance.
"War of attrition" is the perfect term. The human cost will be enormous, and ordinary people will suffer the most. India's foreign policy of strategic autonomy is the right approach here. We must engage with all sides for peace. 🙏
While the analysis seems sound, I respectfully disagree with the broad brush used to describe "Iranians are vengeful." Such generalizations aren't helpful. The desire for peace exists among the common people there, just like anywhere else.
This is why we need strong indigenous defence and energy capabilities. We cannot be at the mercy of global oil price shocks every time there's a flare-up there. Aatmanirbharta is not just a slogan, it's a strategic necessity.
The point about internal support for the regime is crucial. External pressure often backfires by rallying people around the flag. Complex situation with no easy answers. India's measured response so far seems prudent.
We welcome thoughtful discussions from our readers. Please keep comments respectful and on-topic.