AI to drive IT reskilling, not widespread job losses: Chief Economist Axis Bank, Neelkanth Mishra
Mumbai, July 2
Artificial intelligence will require India's IT companies to reskill employees and rethink their business strategies, but fears of widespread job losses are misplaced, according to Neelkanth Mishra, Executive Director-Designate at the World Bank and Chief Economist at Axis Bank.
"There is a lot of pivoting, there is a lot of restrategising that all the firms will need to do. But this panic and paranoia about massive job losses is something which I think is at this stage and time," Mishra told reporters on the sidelines of the launch of Internet and Mobile Association of India's Artificial Intelligence Council of India (AICI).
He said India's services exports continue to grow strongly despite rapid advances in AI.
"Even in the month of April, services export growth was 15 per cent in dollar terms. So it is growing faster than GDP," he said.
Mishra said AI is changing the structure of the IT industry, with some work shifting from outsourced service providers to in-house teams.
"The organisational boundary itself may be shifting because of AI... when we look at the industry revenue from a macro perspective... you have to combine GCCs and Indian IT," he said.
He said the key challenge for IT services companies will be managing the transition by reskilling their workforce.
"Does that mean that there is no risk going forward? No, there is significant risk... there is a significant amount of transition that all of these IT services companies need to go through in terms of reskilling of people," he said.
According to Mishra, companies are likely to hire more talent in areas such as design, user interface (UI), user experience (UX) and deployment, even as demand for routine coding work changes.
Commenting on recent layoffs in some software companies, Mishra said such firms are the first to adjust because software development is their biggest cost. However, he said lower software development costs could increase overall demand for software.
"But on the whole, it does seem to me that the Jevons paradox... is actually playing out. As the cost of writing software falls, the amount of software written goes up," he said.
On the broader economy, Mishra said lower energy prices are expected to support a recovery in India's growth momentum after a temporary slowdown.
"With energy prices now coming down, I expect that the growth momentum that we saw in February should revive in another maybe one or two months... we were growing at 7.5-8 per cent in February and there's no reason why that shouldn't revive in the next two years," he said.
— ANI
Reader Comments
I agree with most points but let's not be naive. The transition will be painful for many. My cousin lost his job at a mid-tier IT firm last month and the reskilling programs are just not accessible to everyone. The big companies can absorb the change, but what about the thousands working in smaller firms? 😕 We need government intervention too.
Interesting to see an Indian economist reference Jevons paradox. In the West, we've seen similar patterns with automation. But what works in theory doesn't always work in practice. The key question is: can Indian IT reskill fast enough to stay competitive? With GCCs (Global Capability Centers) growing, the traditional outsourcing model is already under pressure.
The services exports growing 15% in April is a good sign, but we need to look at the quality of jobs being created. Routine coding jobs are being replaced, but are the new roles in UI/UX paying better? In Hyderabad's tech park, I see lots of young graduates struggling to find roles that match their skills. The education system needs to change as well - we can't just rely on companies to reskill everyone. 🎯
I work for a US-based company with a large GCC in India. The shift is real. We're hiring more people with AI/ML skills and traditional coding roles are shrinking. But what I see missing in this analysis is the gender dimension. Women in IT, especially those who took career breaks, will find it harder to reskill. We need targeted programs for them.
We welcome thoughtful discussions from our readers. Please keep comments respectful and on-topic.