India's 4,000-km Border at Stake: Why Bangladesh's Election Outcome is Crucial

Since the ouster of Sheikh Hasina, ties between India and Bangladesh have soured considerably, with the interim government under caretaker Muhammad Yunus leaning more towards Pakistan and China.

He has been under the control of Islamabad, as a result of which he has framed policies that were aimed at hurting India's interests.

India's consistent position has been that democracy should be restored in Bangladesh, and hence an election must be held soon.

It has been engaging with members of the Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP), the front-runner in the elections. Both sides have agreed to reset ties depending on what the final outcome of the elections would be.

New Delhi is watching the elections closely. There is a lot at stake for India, and one of the key issues is security.

India shares a 4,000-kilometre-long boundary with Bangladesh. This is, in fact, the longest boundary that India shares with any neighbour. A stable Bangladesh is important, as there are many parts of the boundary that are unfenced. It is through these parts that illegal immigration, cattle smuggling, narcotic trade, and movement of counterfeit currency take place.

An official said that the stability of Bangladesh is a key concern. A stable Bangladesh with a strong government would mean that the boundaries remain secure, as both sides would engage in talks.

India is also concerned about terrorists from Bangladesh coming into India.

Under Yunus, several radicals and terrorists have been released, and the ISI has been training them to be used against India.

Prior to the fall of the Sheikh Hasina government, counter-terrorism has been a key pillar for ties between the two countries. The counter-terror operations that both countries have carried out in the past have been seamless in nature.

India would want that balance to remain, and hence, having a democratically elected government is crucial.

Bangladesh and India have been trading partners for a long time. A stable Bangladesh is crucial for India's Act East policy. When Hasina was at the helm, India and Bangladesh had expanded economic cooperation. This went beyond trade and also included energy cooperation and power trade.

These are important issues, and both nations would want them to remain intact. Experts say that this would, however, depend on stability.

Any instability in Bangladesh risks derailing all efforts both nations have put in over the years. India would hope that the BNP wins the elections, as it would be easier to work with this party when compared to the Jamaat-e-Islami.

An official said that it would be wrong to say that ties would collapse fully if the Jamaat is in power. India has worked with the Jamaat when it was in a coalition with the BNP in the past. The situation currently is a different one as the Jamaat and the BNP are no longer allies but rivals. It would be tricky to manoeuvre a Jamaat government as the party is known to be close to Pakistan.

Moreover, Jamaat has a hardline stance and nurtures several anti-India radicals within the organisation. If one takes into account these aspects, then a BNP government would be easier to deal with.

The official also noted that the Jamaat, however, realises that it cannot completely abandon ties with India.

Recently, at a press conference, Jamaat chief Shafiqul Rahman, asked about relations with India, said: "Can you see how colourful it is?"

The Jamaat and the BNP have traded charges on issues relating to India. The Jamaat says that the BNP is too close to India. On the other hand, the BNP accuses the Jamaat of being Pakistan's puppet.

Another official said that it is important that the elections in Bangladesh go on smoothly and that a government is in place. Under Yunus, it had become almost impossible to deal with him as he was completely under the control of Pakistan. However, that will not be the case when a democratically elected government is in place, the official added.

- IANS