Wednesday, 03 March 2021

Are fears about a recession warranted?

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  • PRN | 1 year ago

TEMPE, Ariz: Can we avoid the onset of an economy-wide recession in 2020 and beyond? That is the prime challenge facing the U.S. economy despite positive real GDP growth and a strong consumer goods sector.


The economist with the most accurate forecasts - four years in a row - will deliver his predictions at an event in New York City on Oct. 16, 2019. Sam Kahan will be honored with the Lawrence R. Klein Award, regarded as one of the best-known and longest-standing achievements in the field.

Kahan, a well-known and respected financial economist with more than 30 years analyzing and forecasting the global capital markets, has had the most accurate economic forecasts among the nation's top economists for the years 2015 through 2018.

At the ceremony, Kahan will deliver his 2020 economic forecast, including these predictions

Despite the long list of headwinds, we are forecasting a decelerating but still positive real GDP growth for the U.S. economy.
Regarding sectors, transportation, and freight — ACT Research's primary expertise — we expect to experience declines consistent with weakness of the goods-producing segments of the economy.
The consumer sector continues to be the main engine for growth.
Trade and related factors like tariffs remain the key risk elements.
Regarding policy levers, the Federal Reserve remains the major game in town, even as it is not well understood.

I am honored to receive the prestigious Lawrence R. Klein Blue Chip Forecasting Award, said Kahan. It is a real privilege to be included in the pantheon of influential American economists. No person stands alone. I want to acknowledge the support and input of the other members of the ACT Research team, without whom this achievement would not have occurred.

He demonstrated amazing consistency, outshining some 50 competitors for this year's award, which is judged and sponsored by the W. P. Carey School of Business at Arizona State University. The Blue Chip Economic Indicators newsletter is the source of the forecasts used to select the winner.

The most accurate forecasters during the 2015-to-2018 period picked up the dip in GDP growth rate in 2016, foresaw the very low inflation rate in 2015, and tracked the downward trend in unemployment year by year, said economics Professor Dennis Hoffman, director of the L. William Seidman Research Institute at the W. P. Carey School of Business.

Sam Kahan consistently beat the consensus and finished strong with particularly low forecast errors across the board for 2018.

Sam adds considerable depth and perspective to the economic forecasting efforts at ACT Research, and we are pleased that he has chosen to ply his trade at our boutique research shop, said Kenny Vieth, president and senior analyst at ACT Research. We are even more pleased that his hard work and career in economics is being acknowledged with such a prestigious accolade. Predicting the future is hard, and a solid thesis is required to maintain precision over a four-year window.

Notable guests will attend the invitation-only award ceremony Oct. 16 at the University Club in New York, from 6 to 8 p.m. Journalists are asked to RSVP in advance of the event.

Guests include

Amy Hillman, dean of ASU's W. P. Carey School of Business
Dennis Hoffman, professor of economics and director of the L. William Seidman Research Institute at the W. P. Carey School of Business
Hannah Klein, professor of biochemistry, medicine, and pathology at the NYU School of Medicine

Established in 1976, Wolters Kluwer's Blue Chip Economic Indicators is synonymous with the latest in expert opinion on the future performance of the U.S. economy. Each month, the newsletter compiles the forecasts of 50 leading business economists for key indicators of economic growth.

The Blue Chip editorial team at Haver Analytics is honored to be part of this annual tradition, said Joseph Aguinaldo, executive editor of Blue Chip Economic Indicators. We look forward to continuing work with the W. P. Carey School of Business in determining the top forecasters in the country.

Are fears about a recession warranted?

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