Trump's Trade Breakthrough: Why US-India Relations Are Warming Again

Trump told reporters at the White House that his talks with Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi were “going great” and that a visit to Delhi could take place next year.

Earlier this week, Trump said that he plans to “lower tariffs” imposed on India “at some point” indicating that a breakthrough in the trade talks could come soon.

“I think we're pretty close to doing a deal (with India) that's good for everybody,” Trump said, in answer to a question from the media, at the ceremony for swearing-in of Sergio Gor as the new US Ambassador to India.

While some Indian officials have been optimistic over the India-US trade agreement being signed soon, Commerce Minister Piyush Goyal said on Tuesday that India would not compromise on the interests of farmers, dairy sector and workers in trade deals that it signs with other countries. “We are working on a fair, equitable and balanced trade deal," he said.

The minister further stated that the timing of such deals would depend on mutual readiness. "The trade deal can happen tomorrow, it can happen next month, it can happen next year... but as a government, we are preparing for any contingency," he added.

An article in the South China Morning Post quotes Harsh Pant, a professor of international relations at King’s College London, as saying that Trump's visit would signal a rebound in the relationship between Delhi and Washington.

“If you see carefully, they are moving forward in many ways, in defence cooperation, space cooperation and economic cooperation,” Pant said. “When Mr Trump comes to India, that will be symbolic of a larger turn in the relationship for the better.”

For now, Trump’s unpredictability was creating complications in bilateral ties, including delays in the signing of a free-trade agreement, Pant added.

The article points out that President Trump was initially expected to visit India for the next Quad summit that was tentatively scheduled for Delhi in November. However, media reports in August indicated that Trump had cancelled plans to attend the meeting amid renewed tensions with India.

Indo-Pacific Quad grouping brings together Australia, India, Japan and the United States as a strategic counterbalance to China’s growing influence.

Although Trump had sent officials to several Quad events during his first and current terms, a perceived lack of commitment to the grouping would be viewed as a setback, Pant said.

“I think a postponement of a few months won’t matter much. But if there is no Quad summit for a year, then many will question whether the Quad continues to have relevance in the Trump administration’s scheme of things,” he said.

The article also cited Priyajit Debsarkar, a London-based political and security analyst, as saying that the trade relationship could be repaired if Washington agreed to lower tariffs to around 15 to 20 per cent, enabling Indian exports to regain competitiveness globally.

On defence, both sides renewed a 10-year framework agreement last month. The signing came after Delhi had expressed irritation over Trump’s comments crediting himself with helping to end the border conflict in May between India and Pakistan.

India insists the ceasefire was solely the result of bilateral efforts.

The article also mentions that US-India ties are further complicated by perceptions in Delhi that Washington is courting Islamabad in pursuit of Pakistan’s critical minerals and strategic port access.

- IANS