Stuart Broad's Steve Smith Puzzle: Why England's Ashes Hopes Hang in Balance

Speaking on the For the Love of Cricket podcast, the retired England great was blunt about the challenge Smith continues to pose. “I remember he got this big two hundred (239 in Perth in 2017) and I did not miss the middle of his bat for three days,” Broad said. “Every ball I tried to bowl just hit the middle of his bat.”

Smith, 36, remains one of modern cricket’s most prolific Test batters, averaging 56.01 in Ashes cricket with 12 centuries. His performances have shaped several series, including the 2017-18 and 2019 contests where he piled up 687 and 774 runs respectively. Broad dismissed him 11 times in Tests — more than any other bowler — yet the former England seamer says he still cannot identify a clear method to get him out. “Obviously (Smith’s) technique’s changed throughout, but I still can't sit here and go ‘well this is how you get him out’,” he admitted. “That’s an unbelievable strength of his. He’s incredibly difficult to bowl at. Sometimes you don’t feel like you’ve bowled a bad ball and it still goes for four.”

Smith’s career average of 56.02 climbs to 59.70 at home, reinforcing the scale of England’s task. Only Ricky Ponting (41) has more Test centuries for Australia than Smith’s 36.

Although his form dipped between June 2023 and December 2024, when he went 23 innings without a hundred, he regained his touch with two centuries against India last winter and twin tons — 141 and 131 — against Sri Lanka early in 2025. After a two-month break, he resumed his Ashes preparation in late October with a commanding 118.

Broad believes England must keep Smith’s output significantly below his career numbers to have a chance. “To win the series, we have to keep him (his average) to under 50, don’t we?” he said. “He’s gonna score a hundred, it’s what he does. (If) he averages 40, that’s at least 15 under his career average, so you’re doing brilliantly. I think you have to get him early. If England aren’t celebrating in his first 40 runs, it’s going to be a long series.”

Over 14 years of Ashes battles, England have tried numerous plans to counter Smith’s unorthodox technique — attacking his stumps, bowling wide of off stump, using leg-gully traps and developing specific deliveries. Broad recalled one such tactic in 2019. “I remember Jason Roy was fielding there at leg gully, and he was diving left and right for the first 30 balls, just missing him there, just missing him there. Smith got away, got two hundreds in that game, unbelievable innings.”

Ahead of the latest showdown, England’s hopes may rest on Jofra Archer, who faces Smith in Tests for the first time since his fiery 2019 spell at Lord’s when a bouncer felled the Australian. Smith later emphasised Archer did not dismiss him — he retired hurt and was out lbw to Chris Woakes — although Archer did remove him in an ODI in 2024. Broad wonders if the speedster could again trouble Smith.

“Can Jofra Archer be that guy? Nicking him off from back of a length, just chasing it,” he said. “Because Jofra Archer has that angle of nipping back towards the stumps, can he nip one away? Smith’s looking for the nip-backer.”

- IANS