Bihar Election Stakes: Why Nitish Kumar's Political Future Hangs in Balance

The Chief Minister may not himself be contesting the elections, but he would definitely want to see the Janata Dal (United) he leads, to be at least the second-largest party - if not the largest - in the Bihar Legislative Assembly.

In Assembly election 2020, his party fielded 115 candidates to win 43 seats, ending as the third-largest party that time.

NDA ally Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP), was the second-highest with 74 wins from 110 constituencies.

The Rashtriya Janata Dal (RJD), though with 75 seats, fell short of a majority in alliance with the Mahagathbandhan.

Nitish Kumar, despite having been the head of government several times, with a continuous reign of over a decade in the last term, has preferred to be a member of the Bihar Legislative Council.

The last time he won an Assembly election was in 1995, when he contested from the Harnaut Assembly seat which is a part of Nalanda Lok Sabha constituency. He was then a leader of the Samata Party, which he had formed with George Fernandes.

In 1985, too, he won from Harnaut, as a nominee of the then Charan Singh-led Lok Dal.

As Member of Parliament, Nitish Kumar has represented Barh Lok Sabha seat five times (1989, 1991, 1996, 1998, 1999) for the Janata Dal (twice), Samata Party (twice), and the Janata Dal (United), respectively.

In 2004, he contested from two Parliamentary constituencies, where he lost in Barh, but won from Nalanda. If the exit polls' prediction holds true, it could be the last term for the 74-year-old Bihar politician, though Nitish Kumar himself would like to remain the leader for all (political) seasons, even in his career's autumn (if not the winter).

Meanwhile, the 36-year-old RJD leader Tejashwi Yadav, Lalu Prasad Yadav's heir apparent, appears to be in a hurry. Buoyed with the 2020 results, he prevailed upon allies to be projected as the chief ministerial face of the Mahagathbandhan.

A close tally on Friday is likely to keep his leadership role alive in Bihar, but if the Opposition bloc falls below 90 and RJD itself falls a distant third in this political race, his allies are likely to raise questions.

Among them are the Congress and the Left, who by themselves do not have a significant standing in Bihar politics. But the Left, especially the Communist Party of India (Marxist Leninist) Liberation General Secretary Dipankar Bhattacharya, has evolved in the state where it had slipped significantly since Lalu Prasad Yadav used the Mandal Commission recommendations in poll equations.

In 2020, contesting in 29 constituencies, the Left together won 16 seats, with Bhattacharya's party claiming 12 of the 19 seats it put up candidates on.

In case the combined strength of the Red parties falls to a single figure, it would sound the death knell for the Left - as in adjoining West Bengal. But then, the Opposition do have the EVMs and the Election Commission's Special Intensive Revision (SIR) of electoral rolls to blame.

Also at stake is the political future of Prashant Kishor - where, going by exit poll predictions - if his Jan Suraaj Party ends with zero to three seats, the poll consultant would need to rethink alignment.

As of now, he maintains to go alone even if his MLAs - if any - decide to abandon seat later; a lesson from the Asaduddin Owaisi-led All India Majlis-e-Ittehadul Muslimeen (AIMIM), which won five seats in 2020 but failed to retain the victors in its fold.

Two other young leaders have promises to keep. Lok Janshakti Party (Ram Vilas) leader Chirag Paswan has to prove he is his father's son by striking a few wins after a dismal performance in 2020.

However, he is still riding high on a hundred per cent score in the 2024 Lok Sabha election, where his party won all the five seats it contested.

Another scion, Tej Pratap, has to prove right his claim of having the people's support after being suspended from the RJD and kept out of the Lalu Prasad Yadav family.

- IANS