Key Points

It promises to be a keen contest with the NDA alliance consisting of the BJP, Janata Dal (United), Lok Jan Shakti Party (Ram Vilas), Hindustan Awami Morcha and Rashtriya Lok Shakti Party (RLSP) up against the INDIA bloc of RJD, Congress, CPI (ML), CPI, CPM and Vikasheel Insaan Party (VIP). The two alliances will also have to compete with a new player, Prashant Kishor and his party Jan Suraaj, which is expected to eat into the vote share of major parties. To get a closer picture of what the electorate could throw up, here is a look at the data from the last two assembly polls.

Bihar politics has seen allies shifting sides with JD-U leader Nitish Kumar also having made famous somersaults in his over two decades as Chief Minister.

The 2015 polls, held a year after the BJP-led government headed by Prime Minister Narendra Modi came to office at the Centre, were fought together by Rashtriya Janata Dal (RJD) and Janata Dal-United (JD-U).

RJD emerged as the single largest party in 2015 elections winning 80 seats followed by JD(U) with 71. The two parties formed the government along with the Congress and other allies. However, the alliance was short-lived, with Nitish Kumar walking out and joining the NDA and again forming a government with the support of the BJP in 2017.

In the 2020 election, NDA got a majority in the assembly and won 125 seats with Nitish Kumar again taking oath as Chief Minister. However, in August 2022, Nitish Kumar broke the alliance with the BJP and resigned as Chief Minister and formed the government with the of RJD-Congress-led Mahagathbandhan. He had emerged as a key figure in the formation of the combined opposition INDIA bloc. However, Kumar's romance with the RJD lasted short of two years and in January 2024 and ahead of the parliamentary polls Kumar walked back to the NDA.

BJP improved its position between the 2015 and 2020 polls. It won 53 of 157 seats it contested in 2015 and 74 of 110 seats in 2020. Rashtriya Janata Dal has also shown a strong performance, having won 80 of 101 seats it contested in 2015 and 75 of 144 seats it put up candidates in the 2020 polls.

JD-U saw a dip in its performance in the last two polls. It won 71 seats of 101 it contested in 2015 and 43 of 115 in 2020. Congress also saw a decline in performance from 27 seats it won in 2015 to 19 in 2020.

In 2015, Rashtriya Janata Dal (RJD) was the dominant party in terms of high-margin victories, having secured 29 seats with a margin greater than 15%.

In 2020, the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) won the most high-margin seats, securing 19 seats by a margin greater than 15%.

In terms of party Performance in reserved (SC/ST) seat, Janata Dal (United) [JD(U)] was the most successful party in 2015, winning 13 of the 40 reserved seats. However, in 2020, Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) got the largest number of reserved seats and won 10 of them.

The Rashtriya Janata Dal (RJD) has also been performing well in the reserved seats.

In 2015, BJP's strongest performance was in Pashchim Champaran and Patna and won five seats in each district.

Pashchim Champaran remained the BJP's stronghold in the 2020 polls, and the party swept the eight seats. BJP has shown consistent performance in Pashchim Champaran and Purba Champaran over the past few elections.

RJD has shown a strong influence in some districts of central and northern Bihar. JD-U has been doing well in Nalanda district, the home turf of Chief Minister Nitish Kumar.

In the 2020 assembly elections, the RJD emerged as the single largest party with 75 seats, while the BJP was a close second with 74 seats. Both parties have a strong and committed voter base. With the entry of a new player in Jan Suraaj , this election promises to be a close contest, with the smaller parties expected to play a crucial role in the formation of the next government.

- ANI