Key Points

The demonstrations, largely led by Gen Z against corruption and nepotism, turned violent and 22 lives were lost. The Parliament was set on fire, and this triggered the resignations of Prime Minister K P Oli and President Ram Chandra Poudel. In a nutshell, Nepal had its Bangladesh movement, and it is now becoming amply clear that there is something larger at play. Nepal watchers say that these protests are not just about a social media ban.

The region has seen regimes change overnight, and this has led to the suspicion that something larger may be at play. The Sri Lankan economic crisis led to a change in leadership; the top leadership in the island nation had to flee the country as the protests got violent. In Pakistan, the democratically elected government of Imran Khan was ousted — largely the doing of the Pakistan army. Bangladesh too witnessed a similar development when a massive student uprising led to the ouster of a very strong leader, Sheikh Hasina.

There has been a pattern to these protests. They began on social media and, in no time, turned into movements against corruption. Like Hasina, Oli and Poudel are likely to leave the country: they have been advised by the top security brass to do so because of a grave danger to their lives. With the situation still extremely volatile — and after reports that a former prime minister’s wife was burned to death by protesters — the army is likely to take over the country.

Former Nepal Prime Minister Jhala Nath Khanal’s wife, Rabi Laxmi Chitrakar, passed away after sustaining injuries when their home in Dallu was set on fire amid the unrest. This appears to be a clear pattern of targeting leadership to enforce regime change. While the real reasons behind the protests are not fully clear, questions are being asked about possible foreign involvement. Officials say it is too early to tell and that the situation must be analysed further before drawing conclusions.

Despite the government lifting the ban, the protests refused to die down, suggesting that there was more than just a social media ban motivating the unrest. Theories of an external hand are widely circulating on social media. “Standard playbook seen dozens of times around the world — young brainwashed people burning down Parliament and residences of top politicians; leaders likely fleeing the country, etc. Now watch an American puppet sworn in as the new leader — just like in Bangladesh, Pakistan,” wrote S L Kanthan, a geopolitical commentator, on X.

After her ouster, Sheikh Hasina accused the US of orchestrating her removal from power, alleging that she had resisted US attempts to set up an airbase at St. Martin’s Island. The events in Nepal bear resemblance to what was seen in Sri Lanka and Bangladesh in 2022 and 2024 respectively: sudden youth-led protests leading to ransacking of leaders’ homes, looting, and large-scale unrest. While Sheikh Hasina reportedly fled to India and Gotabaya Rajapaksa to the Maldives, Oli is expected to fly to Dubai.

Tensions in Nepal have been simmering since 2008. Power has rotated between K P Oli, Pushpa Kamal Dahal “Prachanda” (a five-time prime minister), and Sher Bahadur Deuba. One common accusation against these leaders has been corruption, fuelling youth frustration over lack of jobs and economic stagnation. The political landscape has been fragile: Nepal has seen 14 governments, mostly coalition-based, in the last 17 years. This instability has prompted some to argue that the secular republic experiment has failed and to call for restoring the monarchy.

- IANS