Southwest Monsoon 2025's onset could be the earliest since 2010

IANS May 22, 2025 776 views

The India Meteorological Department is anticipating an extraordinarily early southwest monsoon arrival in 2025. Weather experts suggest the onset could happen within days, potentially marking the earliest monsoon since 2010. Specific meteorological criteria have already been met, indicating a probable early start. The forecast includes widespread rainfall warnings across multiple Indian states and regions.

"The prescribed criterion for monsoon's onset over Kerala has been technically met." - India Meteorological Department
Southwest Monsoon 2025's onset could be the earliest since 2010
Thiruvananthapuram, May 21: The onset of the southwest monsoon this year could well be the earliest since 2010, as per conditions on Wednesday, weather officials said.

Key Points

1

IMD forecasts monsoon arrival by May 27

2

Earliest potential onset since 2010

3

Four complex meteorological criteria evaluated

4

Widespread rainfall warnings issued

According to the India Metrological Department, the normal date for the onset over Kerala , which marks the beginning of the four-month-long southwest monsoon season over the country, is June 1.

As the monsoon winds strengthen, the monsoon advances into the remaining parts of the country through June and covers the entire country by mid-July.

The IMD had earlier predicted that the onset this time could be May 27, plus or minus four days.

But on Tuesday, they further pointed out that it could well happen during the coming four to five days and if it does, then the onset could well be the earliest since 2010.

However, on Wednesday, the IMD has gone a step further as the prescribed criterion set for the declaration of the monsoon's onset over Kerala has been technically met.

The four criteria include that 60 per cent of the 14 enlisted weather stations should report rainfall of 2.5 mm or more for two consecutive days.

Then it has to ensure that the depth of westerlies should reach up to 600 hPa and the zonal wind speed over a designated area should be of the order of 15-20 knots at 925 hPa besides the outgoing long wave radiation value, measured in watts per square metre (wm-2), should be below 200 wm-2 in a defined area.

The IMD has warned of heavy rainfall across Kerala, Tamil Nadu, Puducherry, Karaikal, the Konkan region, Goa, central Maharashtra, Telangana, Andhra Pradesh, Bihar, Jharkhand, Manipur, Mizoram, and Tripura till May 24.

The IMD has also advised the fishermen not to venture into the sea from Wednesday till Monday along the coast of East-central and Southeast Arabian Sea and along and off Kerala, Karnataka, Konkan & Goa and adjoining south Gujarat coasts and Lakshadweep area.

Reader Comments

R
Rajesh K.
Early monsoon is good news for our farmers! 🌾 Hope the rainfall distribution remains even across all states. Last year's uneven pattern caused so much trouble in Maharashtra. IMD should keep updating farmers daily through SMS alerts.
P
Priya M.
As a Kerala resident, we're already seeing pre-monsoon showers. The fishermen advisory is crucial - many ignore warnings and risk their lives. Government should strictly enforce the no-fishing rule during these days.
A
Amit S.
Early monsoon means early floods in Bihar probably. Our state administration never prepares in time. Same story every year - waterlogging, diseases, and relief camps. When will we learn? 😔
S
Sunita R.
Monsoon is the lifeline of India! 🌧️ But IMD predictions keep changing - first May 27±4 days, now might be even earlier. While I appreciate their work, such frequent revisions create confusion for agriculture planning and disaster preparedness.
V
Vikram J.
Those technical criteria for monsoon onset are fascinating! 60% stations reporting 2.5mm rain, westerlies at 600hPa... Our meteorological science has come so far since the days of traditional weather predictions. Proud of IMD's capabilities!
N
Neha P.
Hope this means good water levels in reservoirs before peak summer next year. Last year Bengaluru's water crisis was terrible. Early monsoon could help recharge groundwater if we manage it properly with rainwater harvesting.

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Tags:
Southwest Monsoon IMD Kerala Monsoon Climate Prediction Weather Forecast India Meteorological Department