Rupee Past 90: Why India's Top Economist Isn't Losing Sleep Over It

India's Chief Economic Advisor isn't worried about the rupee slipping past 90 against the US dollar. He says the current depreciation isn't causing macroeconomic stress or hurting exports. Nageswaran even suggests now might be the right time for this adjustment, with expectations for a reversal next year. The RBI is allowing market forces to lead, stepping in only to prevent wild swings.

Key Points: CEA Nageswaran on Rupee Depreciation Past 90 vs Dollar

  • CEA Nageswaran states the rupee's 4-5% depreciation since April is within manageable limits
  • He asserts the current level is not stoking inflation or undermining export momentum
  • The RBI allows market-driven movement, intervening only to curb excessive volatility
  • Economists note the rupee's trend aligns with other Asian currencies under pressure
3 min read

Rupee breaches 90-mark, but CEA says no alarm: I am not losing my sleep over It

Chief Economic Advisor V Anantha Nageswaran downplays rupee breaching 90 vs USD, says it's not hurting exports or inflation and expects a reversal next year.

"I am not losing my sleep over it. - V Anantha Nageswaran, Chief Economic Advisor"

New Delhi December 3

India's Chief Economic Advisor V Anantha Nageswaran on Wednesday, downplayed concerns over the rupee weakening past 90 against the US dollar, asserting that the currency's movement remains within manageable limits and has not created macroeconomic stress.

"I am not losing my sleep over it," he told reporters on the sidelines of a CII summit, emphasising that the current level of depreciation has neither stoked inflationary pressures nor undermined India's export momentum. "Right now it's not hurting our exports or inflation," he said.

The rupee has slipped about 4-5 percent since April amid sustained dollar strength, patchy foreign inflows and steady demand for the greenback from importers. The currency opened at a fresh record low on Wednesday, weighed down by persistent equity outflows and uncertainty around the India-US trade negotiations.

Nageswaran, speaking on the sidelines of the summit in the national capital, maintained that the timing of the depreciation was not necessarily adverse for the economy. "If it (the rupee) has to depreciate now probably is the right time," he remarked. He also expressed confidence in a possible reversal in the next financial year, noting, "It will come back next year," signalling expectations of more favourable global financial conditions.

The Reserve Bank of India has allowed the currency to largely follow market dynamics, intervening only to curb excessive volatility. Policymakers have consistently underscored that the central bank does not pursue a fixed exchange-rate target.

The Monetary Policy Committee, met earlier in the day ahead of its December 5 rate decision, likely to prioritise its inflation mandate while highlighting the role of a flexible exchange rate in cushioning external shocks.

Economists note that the rupee's movement remains broadly aligned with trends across Asian currencies, many of which have come under pressure due to elevated US yields and cautious investor sentiment. India's strong growth prospects, however, have helped limit the scale of depreciation compared to some regional peers.

Nageswaran also participated in a session titled Building a Resilient Macroeconomic Framework - Fiscal Discipline, Privatisation and Statistics, where panelists discussed how shifting global headwinds are prompting countries to reinforce the foundations of macroeconomic stability.

The discussion examined the importance of prudent fiscal management, deeper privatisation efforts and robust statistical systems in sustaining long-term growth. It aimed to identify institutional reforms and policy pathways that could strengthen economic resilience and improve policy effectiveness.

- ANI

Share this article:

Reader Comments

S
Sarah B
I appreciate the calm tone, but saying "I am not losing my sleep over it" feels a bit dismissive to common citizens. Petrol prices are already high, and a weaker rupee will make imports more expensive. A little more empathy in the messaging would help.
P
Priyanka N
All Asian currencies are under pressure, not just the rupee. The key is our strong growth story. If the fundamentals are solid, these fluctuations are temporary. Focus should be on attracting long-term FDI, not short-term currency moves.
A
Aman W
The timing comment is interesting. If it has to depreciate, better now than later. Hopefully, the prediction of a reversal next year holds true. Global conditions do seem poised for a change.
M
Michael C
As someone who sends money back home, a weaker rupee means my dollars go further for my family in Kerala. It's a silver lining for NRIs, though I understand it's complex for the overall economy.
K
Kavya N
The RBI's approach of managing volatility instead of fixing a rate is the right one. A flexible exchange rate acts as a shock absorber. We've seen this work during global crises. Trust the process, yaar.

We welcome thoughtful discussions from our readers. Please keep comments respectful and on-topic.

Leave a Comment

Minimum 50 characters 0/50