Key Points

India's retail inflation is showing a significant downward trend, reaching a six-year low of 3% in May. The Union Bank of India's report highlights declining prices in key food categories like cereals, pulses, and vegetables. Economists view this trend positively, as the inflation rate remains comfortably within the Reserve Bank of India's target range of 2-6%. The stable inflation signals potential economic recovery and controlled price dynamics in the Indian market.

Key Points: UBI Reveals India's Retail Inflation Drops to 6-Year Low

  • Retail inflation drops to 3.0% in May, lowest in six years
  • Core inflation remains steady around 4.11%
  • Food prices continue to moderate across categories
3 min read

Retail inflation likely to ease to 6-year low of 3% in May on cooling food prices: UBI

UBI report shows retail inflation easing to 3% in May, driven by cooling food prices and stable commodity markets

"Inflation is expected to remain under control in the financial year 2025-26 - Reserve Bank of India"

New Delhi, June 5

Retail inflation, or the Consumer Price Index (CPI), will continue to moderate to 3.0 per cent in May, a six-year low, mainly due to the sequential moderation in prices of cereals and pulses even as most other segments started to strengthen, according to a Union Bank of India (UBI) report.

As per the inflation data released by the Ministry of Statistics and Programme Implementation, retail inflation in April fell to 3.16 per cent from 3.34 per cent in March.

CPI inflation is a key economic indicator that reflects the rate at which prices of goods and services consumed by households are increasing over time.

Further, the report said that inflation, excluding vegetables, stayed steady at 4.11 per cent, while core inflation slightly increased to 4.18 per cent, mainly because of the low base from last year.

However, the report added that weak demand and stable prices of most commodities (except precious metals) are expected to keep core inflation under control.

The report added that inflation excluding gold likely stayed low at 3.4 per cent, up slightly from 3.3 per cent in April.

The April CPI slips to six-year lows, as the decline in inflation is attributed to a decrease in the prices of vegetables, pulses, and products, fruits, meat and fish, personal care and effects, and cereals and products.

Effectively, overall inflation declined 18 basis points in April 2025 compared to last year's period.

According to the data, core inflation remained almost flat at 4.09 per cent in April, while core inflation excluding gold stayed unchanged at 3.3 per cent.

Core CPI ex-transport, post-recording a spike in March (4.26 per cent), has again softened to 4.18 per cent. Within the core inflation category, personal care inflation has moderated from 13.50 per cent in March to 12.90 per cent.

Core inflation is defined as a measure of inflation that removes volatile, short-term price changes in key categories, primarily food and energy, in order to portray a steadier, long-term trend in price increases.

The inflation level gives confidence to economists and analysts, as current inflation rates are within the Reserve Bank of India's (RBI) manageable range of 2-6 per cent.

Retail inflation last breached the Reserve Bank of India's 6 per cent upper tolerance level in October 2024. Since then, it has been in the 2-6 per cent range, which the RBI considers manageable.

Food prices were a concern for Indian policymakers, who wished to sustain retail inflation around 4 per cent.

After the RBI's April monetary policy review meeting, the central bank said that inflation is expected to remain under control in the financial year 2025-26.

- ANI

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Reader Comments

Here are 6 diverse Indian perspective comments on the inflation report:
R
Rajesh K.
Finally some good news for common people! Petrol prices are still high but at least kitchen budget is getting lighter. Hope this trend continues through monsoon season when vegetable prices usually shoot up. 🙏
P
Priya M.
As a homemaker, I can confirm prices of dal and atta have become slightly better. But why is no one talking about milk prices? Our monthly dairy bill has increased by ₹200 compared to last year. Inflation numbers don't reflect ground reality completely.
A
Amit S.
Good macroeconomic numbers but middle class is still struggling. School fees, healthcare costs and property taxes keep rising. RBI should consider these factors too when setting interest rates.
S
Sunita R.
Inflation at 3% is great news! Maybe now banks will reduce loan interest rates? Planning to take home loan next year and every percentage point matters. Fingers crossed! 🤞
V
Vikram J.
While headline inflation is down, core inflation remains sticky around 4%. This shows underlying price pressures still exist. RBI should remain cautious and not cut rates prematurely.
N
Neha P.
Sabzi mandi prices are still fluctuating like crazy! One week tomatoes are ₹20/kg, next week ₹50/kg. Government should improve supply chain to stabilize prices instead of just celebrating lower inflation numbers.

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