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Key Points

SBI Research predicts India’s FY25 GDP will settle at 6.3%, with Q4 growth between 6.4-6.5%. The report highlights resilience despite global trade disruptions and domestic economic headwinds. Positive factors like easing inflation and strong monsoon forecasts support growth, though corporate margins and capex remain concerns. The RBI and IMF also project steady growth, reinforcing cautious optimism for India’s economic outlook.

Key Points: SBI Projects India FY25 GDP at 6.3% with Q4 Growth Around 6.5%

  • SBI expects FY25 GDP at 6.3% with Q4 growth around 6.5%
  • RBI and IMF projections align closely with SBI's outlook
  • Domestic factors like monsoon and inflation support growth
  • Risks include slowing corporate margins and weak state capex
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Q4 FY25 GDP could be 6.4%-6.5%, GDP for FY 2025 to settle at 6.3%: SBI

SBI Research forecasts India's FY25 GDP at 6.3%, with Q4 growth between 6.4-6.5%, citing resilience despite global uncertainties and domestic challenges.

"India's growth trajectory appears relatively stable, though cautious optimism is warranted in the short term. – SBI Research Report"

New Delhi, May 21

India's economy is expected to maintain a stable growth trajectory in the current fiscal year, with GDP projected to settle at 6.3 per cent with Q4 FY25 growth at between 6.4 and 6.5 per cent, according to an SBI Research report. The report signals continued economic resilience amid evolving global and domestic challenges.

The SBI research adds that despite rising global uncertainties, including trade disruptions and policy volatility, India's economic momentum remains largely resilient.

The Reserve Bank of India (RBI), however, has projected 6.5 per cent GDP growth for the fiscal year 2024-25.

SBI report notes that the GDP growth projections in its report are based on its in-house nowcasting model using 36 high-frequency indicators. The model reflects a slight moderation in activity, with fewer indicators showing acceleration compared to the third quarter.

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has projected India's GDP at 6.2 per cent in FY25 and 6.3 per cent in fiscal 2026, driven by strong private consumption, even as global growth slows to 2.8 per cent in 2025.

Domestic positive factors such as easing household inflation expectations and above-average monsoon forecasts support demand and agricultural growth prospects.

However, the report points out that the concerns such as dip in Index of Industrial Production (IIP), slowing corporate GVA (Gross Value Added) and EBITDA (Earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortisation) margins, and weaker capex momentum across several states persist.

It added that while external risks are mounting, India's growth trajectory appears relatively stable, though cautious optimism is warranted in the short term, the report added.

It is to be noted that the March edition of the Monthly Economic Review of the Ministry of Finance added that the performance of the economy in the past quarters was driven by strong agricultural and service sector performance on the supply side and a steady increase in consumption and core merchandise and services exports on the demand side.

The Finance Ministry too has estimated that the Indian economy will achieve a growth of 6.5 per cent in FY25 despite considerable external headwinds.

- ANI

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Reader Comments

R
Rahul K.
Good to see stable projections despite global headwinds! But I hope this growth translates to more jobs for our youth. The service sector is doing well but manufacturing needs equal push. Make in India must deliver more employment opportunities 🇮🇳
P
Priya M.
The monsoon forecast is promising for rural economy! As someone from UP, I've seen how good rains can boost farmer incomes and local businesses. Hope the growth reaches small towns too, not just metros. 🚜
A
Arjun S.
While 6.3% looks decent, we should aim higher like China used to do. The dip in IIP and corporate margins is worrying. Government needs to address infrastructure bottlenecks and simplify GST further for MSMEs.
S
Sunita R.
As a small business owner in Gujarat, I'm happy to see consumption holding up. But raw material costs are still high! Hope RBI keeps interest rates stable now. 🙏 The growth numbers give me confidence to expand my textile unit next year.
V
Vikram J.
The report mentions weaker capex in states - this is concerning. Many states are cutting development budgets for freebies. We need balanced policies that don't sacrifice long-term growth for short-term political gains.
N
Neha P.
Positive news! But I wish reports would highlight more about how this growth benefits different income groups. The gap between rich and poor seems to be growing despite good GDP numbers. Inclusive growth should be the real measure of success.

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