Key Points

The Chinese have had a hard time dealing with the Balochistan Liberation Army (BLA) and the Tehreek-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) while executing the CPEC project that passes through Balochistan. They have repeatedly complained that Pakistan has failed to provide security to its people working on the project. Further, the two groups have caused substantial damage to the project during its execution.

China is no doubt interested in the CPEC 2.0 involving Afghanistan. However, it has decided that it would tread cautiously this time around and would not put in its money unless Pakistan can guarantee the project’s security.

For Pakistan, taming the TTP is extremely crucial as it enjoys the support of the Afghan Taliban. Pakistan had repeatedly blamed the Taliban of backing the TTP and allowing the outfit to use its soil to strike at Pakistan.

Now, Intelligence assessments say that Pakistan is getting desperate and has decided to take matters into its own hands, while also conveying a message to the Taliban.

Pakistan has now decided to carry out strikes on TTP bases within Afghanistan. This risks a full-blown confrontation with the Taliban as well. Pakistan has mapped TTP infrastructure across the Durand Line, following a high-level security meeting. The meeting was chaired by Pakistan’s army chief, Field Marshal Asim Munir and other officials. It was decided that Pakistan would carry out strikes, thus indicating that there would be a major escalation.

An official from Pakistan is likely to travel to Afghanistan and convey to the Taliban about their plans on dealing with the TTP.

Recently, the Foreign Ministers of China, Pakistan, and Afghanistan held a meeting to discuss the CPEC 2.0 project. China made it clear that it wanted Afghanistan to be part of the project. While the meeting decided on a variety of factors, the point on which there was no agreement was about the Taliban’s support for the TTP. While Afghanistan assured China that it would not allow the BLA to use its soil to stage attacks, it failed to give any such assurance about the TTP.

A lot would depend on the Pakistan official’s visit to Afghanistan. If the Taliban do not agree to what Pakistan is saying, then one could expect chaos in the region. Pakistan needs the investment from China desperately as its economy continues to fall each day. However, for that to take place, it needs to convince Beijing that it is capable of securing the project.

Despite making all efforts, the Pakistan Army has failed to rein in the TTP. Following the meeting of the Foreign Ministers of the three countries, the TTP has only scaled up attacks against the Pakistan Army. The army has, in the last week, lost 50 personnel in attacks that were carried out by the TTP in areas in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa and Lower Dir. Unable to fight the outfit, the Pakistan Army has even reached out to the US seeking support in terms of Intelligence and other logistics.

Sharif recently blamed terrorists based in Afghanistan for striking in Pakistan. He had also warned that they would no longer keep quiet. The Pakistan Army may go on the offensive, but the battle would not be an easy one, especially against the TTP.

Indian officials feel that Pakistan, without the support of the US or China, is not likely to have any major success against the TTP or BLA. However, it is desperate for money and hence is ready to take the risk of going into an all-out war against the TTP. This, however, risks regional stability and the possibility of a massive escalation.

- IANS