India's Shrimp Export Boom: How Non-US Markets Fueled 18% Growth Amid US Tariffs

The growth was led by strong traction in non-US markets, where exports surged by 30 per cent in value (USD 1.38 billion vs USD 1.06 billion), reflecting the strategic shift of Indian shrimp exporters into other geographies.

Non-US markets exports, which accounted for 51 per cent of overall exports in 5MFY25, increased to 57 per cent in 5MFY26 on a higher base.

India's seafood sector is gradually broadening its market presence beyond traditional markets like the USA.

Shrimp exports grew strongly in the first five months of 2025-26, driven by non-US markets such as Vietnam, Belgium, China, Russia, and others, which accounted for 86 per cent of the incremental export value, according to the CareEdge report.

While export momentum may soften in H2 2025-26 due to continued US pressure and weaker fresh orders, the industry is cushioning the impact through various measures, including opening access to previously inaccessible markets and an incremental number of approvals for Indian units for export to the EU and Russia, the report added.

Shrimp exports to the US -- the traditional anchor market for Indian shrimp -- registered muted growth of around 5 per cent in 5M 2025-26 compared with the corresponding period last year.

"The moderation was broadly in line with expectations, with a significant drop in August 2025 following sharp growth in the earlier months of the fiscal year due to front-loading of exports ahead of the imposition of higher reciprocal tariffs effective August 27, 2025," the CareEdge report noted.

Since early 2025-26, Indian shrimp exports to the US have faced higher tariffs, including reciprocal duties alongside existing anti-dumping and countervailing levies.

Between April and August 2025, India's effective tariff was 18 per cent, compared with 13-14 per cent for Ecuador and Indonesia, the two other major shrimp-exporting nations to the USA.

Post-August, effective duty on Indian shrimp surged to 58 per cent, while competitors remained at 18-49 per cent.

The higher tariff exposure has weakened India's relative price competitiveness in US retail and foodservice channels, benefiting Ecuador and Indonesia, it added.

The exports to the US reached USD 0.27 billion in May 2025, exceeding the average monthly export for the previous financial year.

Exports to the US typically peak in the third quarter, but this year's peak has been front-loaded. The rating agency expects US exports to decline in the latter half of this year, with signs already visible from August 2025, when exports dropped by 35 per cent from July 2025.

Shipments to China, which accounted for the largest share of non-USA exports, grew by 16 per cent, while Japan, the erstwhile reprocessing hub, remained largely stable.

Vietnam, with export value doubling to USD 0.18 billion, highlights its increasing role as a re-export hub.

Export to Belgium also doubled to USD 0.14 billion, supported by stronger EU demand and enhanced compliance with traceability standards by the Indian players.

"India's shrimp export performance is expected to moderate by 10-12 per cent on the back of US tariff headwinds, partially cushioned by diversification into other geographies and frontloaded shipments during the initial months of the fiscal. In the near term, U.S. buyers are likely to continue partially absorbing elevated tariff costs on existing orders, aided by holiday-season demand. However, a slowdown in fresh orders and sustained tariff pressure could weigh on export momentum in the last quarter of the financial year," said Ratheesh Kumar, Associate Director, CareEdge Ratings.

- ANI