Key Points

The fall of the K.P. Oli government is clearly a sign that democracy has once again failed in Nepal. Since becoming a democracy in 2008, every government in power has been an unstable one. The country has seen 14 unstable coalition governments in the past 17 years thus signalling that there is something wrong with the system.

In the last 48 hours, questions have also been asked if the monarchy that once ruled Nepal will make its return.

The reason why this question is being asked is because just before the latest protests, a few months back the Rashtriya Prajatantra Party, along with pro-royalists, Hindu nationalists, and anti-federalists held a massive demonstration demanding the return of the monarchy.

The protesters demanded the restoration of the monarchy. They also sought that the former king be reinstated as the head of the state.

The other demands included the revival of Hinduism as Nepal’s state religion. This was one of the major signals that the Oli government did not read.

He dismissed the protests and said that there was no chance of the monarchy returning. What he failed to read into was that the restoration of the monarchy was being sought because there was immense resentment with the government and people desperately wanted a change.

They felt that the country was stable and better off when the monarchy was at the helm.

In 2008, the 240 year old rule of the Shah dynasty came to an end. The flag was lowered from the main palace in Kathmandu and the world’s last Hindu monarchy was abolished.

However the end too came following widespread protests. King Gyanendra had ascended the throne in 2002 after his brother King Birendra and his family were tragically massacred. He initially served as a Constitutional monarch, but in 2005, he seized absolute power.

He went on to dissolve the government and parliament and jailed politicians and journalists while also imposing an emergency rule. These moves were disliked by the people and they hit the streets, which eventually led to him stepping down and this led to the downfall of the monarchy and the establishment of a republic.

To question whether the latest developments in Nepal will lead to the restoration of a monarchy, Nepal watchers say that this is highly unlikely, The changed circumstances and a bit of prophecy is attached to this and hence the monarchy may not return. The silence of Gynanedra is also a clear sign that no attempt is being made from his end to return to the helm. Even during the protests seeing the restoration of the monarchy he was silent and he remains so even now.

The restoration is also an unlikely possibility because Nepal which is a republic is constitutionally enshrined. A change of the same is not exactly a simple process. Moreover the mainstream political parties strongly oppose the return of the monarchy and hence this too rules out the possibility.

In this context it would be interesting to look into a prophecy which is attributed to Guru Gorakhnath.

Gorakhnath blessed Prithvi Narayan Shah, the unifier of Nepal in the 18th century with a monarchy that would last 11 generations. The monarchy strongly embraces this view and says that the monarchy's 11th generation rule ended with King Dipendra Shah.

He had briefly ascended the throne while in coma following the royal massacre of 2001. This reign which was very short was seen as the fulfillment of Gorakhnath’s blessings. This led to the abolition of the monarchy in 2008.

Going by these events, it is very unlikely that the monarchy would return. The Gen Z protesters have two names as their leaders. They have chosen Chief Justice Sushila Karki as their interim leader following a four meeting. She is Nepal’s first woman chief justice. However, her stint was cut short following an impeachment after she was accused of passing biased judgments.

The protesters said that no youth connected to politics should assume the role. They selected Karki to represent them in the upcoming negotiations.

Earlier there were reports that the protesters wanted Balvendra Shah popularly known as Balen as their leader. He had backed the protest from the start and said that his sympathy is with the youth.

He is a civil engineer by training and a rapper by profession. He entered politics and in 2022 won the mayoral polls in Kathmandu. He has built a reputation for zero tolerance on corruption.

Balen was listed by Time Magazine as the Top 100 Emerging Leaders. The New York Times praised his grassroots style of functioning and transparency.

Looking at the developments, the experts feel that like in the case of Bangladesh, there is likely to be an interim government in place until fresh polls are held.

- IANS