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Key Points

Prediction markets are booming in the US with Polymarket and Kalshi securing major partnerships, including Elon Musk’s xAI. Regulatory progress, like Polymarket’s CFTC-regulated acquisition, opens doors for American traders. In India, Probo leads opinion trading with 50M+ users, backed by Peak XV and Elevation Capital. Experts predict exponential job growth if regulations evolve to support this fast-growing sector.

Key Points: Polymarket and Kalshi Gain Momentum with Elon Musk xAI Partnerships

  • Elon Musk's xAI partners with Kalshi to integrate Grok into prediction markets
  • Polymarket acquires CFTC-regulated QCEX for $112M to expand US trading
  • India's Probo sees rising demand beyond cricket with 50M+ users
  • Regulatory clarity fuels job growth as Indian opinion trading platforms attract major investors
3 min read

Momentum builds in prediction markets as strategic deals broaden trading scope

Prediction markets surge as Polymarket and Kalshi secure deals with Elon Musk's X, backed by Peter Thiel and regulatory breakthroughs.

"Owning a DCM and DCO will let us serve all American traders and brokerages. – Shayne Coplan, Polymarket Founder"

New Delhi, July 30

In 2025, prediction markets are gaining momentum in the United States, driven by strategic partnerships, regulatory clarity, and significant fundraising rounds led by some of Silicon Valley's most prominent investors. Recently, prediction market platforms have entered into partnerships with both legacy and social media outlets.

Within just two months--June and July--America's two leading prediction market platforms, Polymarket and Kalshi, announced strategic collaborations with Elon Musk's X platform, a move expected to provide these platforms with enhanced distribution.

xAI confirmed its partnership with Kalshi through a post on July 24, stating, "Effective immediately, Kalshi and xAI are partnering to bring Grok to prediction markets." The post further added, "Two of the fastest growing companies in America are now on the same team."

On the regulatory front, the tide appears to be turning in the United States. Polymarket, backed by Peter Thiel's Founders Fund, is now open to American traders following its strategic acquisition of a CFTC-regulated exchange and clearinghouse, QCEX, for USD 112 million.

Shayne Coplan, founder of Polymarket, posted on July 21 about the acquisition, saying, "Owning a DCM [Designated Contract Maker] and DCO [Derivative Clearing House] will let us serve all American traders and brokerages." Coplan added, "This acquisition isn't just about a license; its Polymarket's homecoming returning stronger and ready to serve American users once again."

Closer to Asia, India has a vibrant prediction market industry, also referred to as opinion trading. Despite regulatory ambiguity, Probo, the country's largest opinion trading platform with over 50 million registered users, enables trading across a wide range of event contracts.

"Beyond cricket, we are seeing increasing user traction in categories including economy, world sports and news. Every user trades in two categories on an average," said a Probo spokesperson.

Like its global counterparts, Probo has raised capital from a notable lineup of investors, including Peak XV Partners (formerly Sequoia Capital India), Fundamentum Partnerships, and Elevation Capital, highlighting the significant growth potential of prediction markets in India.

Commenting on the Indian market and regulatory landscape, Shashank Reddy, Managing Partner at Evam Law & Policy, said, "Opinion trading is gaining remarkable traction in India, with homegrown platforms like Probo and MPL Opinio at the forefront. This sector is projected to drive 30-35% of both direct and indirect job creation while contributing significantly to economic growth. With progressive regulation, we anticipate this job creation potential to multiply exponentially as the market matures. This segment currently employs over 10,000 individuals directly and indirectly."

- ANI

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Reader Comments

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Priya S
While the economic potential is exciting, we must be careful about gambling addiction. Many young Indians are already spending too much on fantasy sports. Prediction markets could make this worse if not regulated properly. The job creation numbers sound promising though!
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Aditya G
The US-India comparison is fascinating. While American platforms focus on political/economy predictions, Indian platforms are cricket-first. Shows our priorities 😂 But seriously, with AI partnerships happening abroad, Indian startups should also explore such collaborations.
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Sarah B
As someone working in fintech, I see huge potential here. Prediction markets could become a new asset class in India. The 50M user base of Probo is impressive! But the article doesn't mention taxation - how will gains be taxed? Need clarity on this.
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Karthik V
The job creation numbers sound too optimistic. 10,000 jobs currently is good, but 30-35% growth projection seems exaggerated. Also, most Indian platforms are still loss-making. We need sustainable business models, not just user growth hype.
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Nisha Z
Interesting to see Peak XV (ex-Sequoia) investing here. They've backed many successful Indian startups. If they're betting on prediction markets, there must be real potential. But I worry about small investors losing money - need strong investor education along with regulation.

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