Key Points

ISMA had first released its preliminary estimate on July 31, 2025, projecting 349 lakh tons of production. The estimate was prepared using pan-India satellite imagery from June 2025, supported by field-level assessments, and assuming normal monsoon conditions. The association has now conducted a reassessment, using additional satellite data for Maharashtra and Karnataka procured in early September, along with updates on the progress of the southwest monsoon, reservoir levels, and prevailing crop conditions across major producing states.

According to ISMA, favourable monsoon conditions in Maharashtra and Karnataka, aided by abundant rainfall in August, have ensured healthy crop growth and normal development. With reservoir levels higher than last year and expectations of continued rainfall during the southwest and upcoming northeast monsoon, the outlook for these key sugar-producing states remains strong.

In Uttar Pradesh, crop conditions are reported to be significantly better than last year. Industry-level initiatives on cane development and timely introduction of improved varieties have contributed to healthier crops. Lower incidence of disease is also expected to result in improved yields and higher recovery rates, ISMA noted.

Tamil Nadu too has shown promising trends, with both yield and sugar recovery expected to surpass earlier projections.

However, some northern states such as Punjab, Haryana, and Uttarakhand have faced localized flood-like conditions, leading to minor reductions in cane output. Despite these setbacks, ISMA said that the overall crop quality in Maharashtra, Karnataka, Uttar Pradesh, and Tamil Nadu is expected to compensate for the shortfall, keeping the national output projections stable.

"The improved cane quality in major producing states is supporting a marginal rise in output, but this is offset by small declines in flood-hit regions. As a result, the national sugar output estimate remains steady at 349 lakh tons for 2025-26," ISMA said in its statement.

ISMA further announced that it will reassess crop conditions again in October 2025 and release its first advance estimate in October or November, factoring in the latest developments in rainfall, water availability, and harvesting trends.

- ANI