Key Points

Bernstein's report highlights mortgages as the primary driver of India's retail credit expansion, particularly in affordable housing. The sector presents a massive $500 billion lending opportunity with only 11% mortgage penetration currently. Lenders must scale operations effectively to capitalize on this growth potential. India's mortgage market could reach $1.5 trillion by FY35 as credit per borrower increases.

Key Points: India's Housing Loans to Drive Retail Credit Growth Says Bernstein

  • Affordable housing to fuel $500B lending opportunity
  • Mortgage penetration in India lags at 11% of GDP
  • Non-mortgage retail credit exceeds 30% of GDP
  • Scaling operations key for lender success
2 min read

India's retail credit growth will be driven mainly by housing loans, credit per borrower to rise: Bernstein

Bernstein report predicts India's retail credit surge will be led by mortgages, with affordable housing presenting a $500B lending opportunity.

"We expect the next leg of growth to come from rising credit per borrower, led by mortgages. - Bernstein"

New Delhi, July 11

The next phase of India's retail credit growth is expected to come from a rise in credit per borrower, mainly driven by the housing loan segment, according to a report by Bernstein.

A major part of this growth is expected to come from the affordable housing segment.

The report highlighted that mortgages are set to become the key driver of retail credit growth in the country.

It stated, "We expect the next leg of growth to come from rising credit per borrower, led by mortgages."

Affordable mortgages, with a ticket size that offers around 3 per cent Return on Assets (RoA), represent a USD 500 billion lending opportunity.

The key factor for success in this area will be lenders' ability to scale and replicate their operating models consistently across multiple states in India.

Over the past decade, the biggest value creation stories in the credit sector were based on expanding access to formal financing.

During this period, more than 200 million new consumers were added to the credit system, with the number of borrowers growing faster than the total loan volume.

Now, the report highlighted that with around 60 per cent of the Indian labour force having access to credit, the next leg of growth to be powered by an increase in the amount of credit each borrower takes, particularly in the form of mortgages.

A mortgage is a loan taken to buy a house or property, where the borrower repays the amount in instalments and the property acts as security for the loan.

The report pointed out that mortgage penetration in India is still low at around 11 per cent of GDP. This is far behind China, where it stands at about 30 per cent, and significantly lower compared to developed markets, where mortgage penetration exceeds 50 per cent.

On the other hand, non-mortgage retail credit in India already accounts for more than 30 per cent of GDP, which is higher than in many emerging and developed markets.

The report estimates that a steady rise in mortgage penetration over the coming years could create a USD 1.5 trillion mortgage opportunity in India by FY35.

- ANI

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Reader Comments

P
Priya S
While housing loans are important, I worry about over-leveraging. Many young couples take huge loans without proper financial planning. Banks should educate borrowers before approving big amounts.
A
Aditya G
The $500 billion opportunity sounds exciting! But will this credit reach tier 2/3 cities equally? Most housing loans currently benefit urban India only. Rural housing needs equal attention.
S
Sarah B
Interesting to see mortgage penetration at just 11% of GDP. In India, we still prefer saving for years to buy property rather than taking loans. Cultural shift needed along with financial products.
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Nikhil C
Hope this doesn't lead to another subprime crisis like America had. RBI must keep strict watch on lending norms. We've seen what happens when banks give loans without proper checks.
K
Kavya N
Good analysis! But what about women borrowers? Many banks still ask for male co-signers even when women have good income. This needs to change if we want inclusive growth. #WomenInFinance

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