NewKerala.com

Key Points

India's Q4 GDP growth is projected at 6.9%, falling short of NSO's 7.6% estimate. ICRA warns of uneven private consumption and investment trends impacting performance. The full-year GDP expansion may drop sharply to 6.3% from last year's 9.2% growth. Official data confirming these figures will be released on May 30.

Key Points: India Q4 GDP growth at 6.9% falls short of NSO 7.6% estimate

  • ICRA estimates 6.9% Q4 growth vs NSO's 7.6% projection
  • FY25 GDP may slow to 6.3% from 9.2% in FY24
  • RBI and NSO maintain 6.5% full-year forecast
  • Growth driven by agriculture and service sectors
2 min read

India's Q4 GDP to grow 6.9%, lower than NSO's estimates of 7.6%: ICRA

ICRA projects India's Q4 GDP growth at 6.9%, below NSO's 7.6% forecast, with full-year expansion likely at 6.3%

"Both private consumption and investment activity were uneven in Q4 FY2025 - Aditi Nayar, ICRA"

New Delhi, May 19

Indian economy is expected to grow at 6.9 per cent in the January-March quarter 2025, the official data for which is scheduled to be released on May 30 by the National Statistics Office, according to rating agency ICRA.

ICRA has projected the year-on-year expansion of the GDP to rise to 6.9 per cent in Q4 2024-25 from 6.2 per cent in Q3 2024-25, while significantly undershooting the National Statistical Office's (NSO) implicit estimate of 7.6 per cent for the quarter.

During the April-June, July-September, October-December 2024 quarters, the country's economy, in real terms, observed a growth rate of 6.7 per cent, 5.6 per cent, and 6.2 per cent, respectively.

On May 30, the provisional estimates of annual GDP for the entire 2024-25 fiscal will also be released.

As per the second advance estimates of NSO, the country's economy is projected to grow at 6.5 per cent in 2024-25.

The Reserve Bank of India had also projected 6.5 per cent GDP growth for the fiscal 2024-25.

Aditi Nayar, Chief Economist, Head-Research and Outreach, ICRA, "Both private consumption and trends for investment activity were uneven in Q4 FY2025, with the latter partly owing to tariff-related uncertainty."

Unless there are material revisions in the data for Q1-Q3 2024-25, ICRA projects a sharp step down in the full-year GDP expansion to 6.3 per cent in 2024-25 from 9.2 per cent in 2023-24.

India's GDP grew by an impressive 9.2 per cent during the financial year 2023-24, continuing to be the fastest-growing major economy. The economy grew by 7.2 per cent in 2022-23 and 8.7 per cent in 2021-22, according to official data.

The Indian economy is estimated to achieve a growth of 6.5 per cent in FY25 despite considerable external headwinds, the Department of Economic Affairs (DEA), Ministry of Finance said in a report in March. The Monthly Economic Review added that the performance of the economy in the past quarters was driven by strong agricultural and service sector performance on the supply side and a steady increase in consumption and core merchandise and services exports on the demand side.

- ANI

Share this article:

Reader Comments

R
Rahul K.
6.9% is still a decent growth rate considering global economic slowdown. We should focus on making this growth more inclusive - rural areas need better infrastructure and job opportunities. The gap between projected and actual GDP shows we need better forecasting methods.
P
Priya M.
The drop from 9.2% to 6.3% projected for full year is concerning 😕 We need stronger policies to boost manufacturing and exports. Make in India needs more push! Also, why such big difference between NSO and ICRA estimates? Transparency matters.
A
Amit S.
Growth is growth! We're still outperforming most economies. The focus should be on quality of growth - are middle class families feeling this in their wallets? Petrol prices and inflation need to be controlled better.
S
Sunita R.
The uneven private consumption pattern shows our economy still has kuchha-pukka aspects. Some sectors booming while others struggle. Government should give more attention to MSMEs - they're the real backbone of our economy 🇮🇳
V
Vikram J.
Numbers don't tell the full story. In my small business, we're seeing slower payments and reduced orders. The GDP growth needs to translate to ground-level benefits. More focus required on easing business regulations and credit availability.
N
Neha P.
Agricultural growth mentioned here gives me hope! But we need to see if this is reaching small farmers. Also, service sector doing well is good news for urban youth. Maybe time to invest in Indian markets? 🤔

We welcome thoughtful discussions from our readers. Please keep comments respectful and on-topic.

Leave a Comment

Minimum 50 characters 0/50