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Key Points

The RBI's latest survey reveals India's imports will grow at double the rate of exports this fiscal year. Economists predict a widening trade gap with current account deficit reaching 0.8% of GDP. While GDP growth remains robust at 6.4%, it falls slightly below RBI's earlier projections. The survey also flags rising inflation from 3.1% to 4.4% in the coming year.

Key Points: RBI Survey Shows India Imports to Outpace Exports in FY25

  • India's trade deficit may widen as imports grow twice as fast as exports
  • Current account deficit projected at 0.8% of GDP for FY26
  • GDP growth forecast revised down to 6.4% for 2025-26
  • Inflation expected to rise from 3.1% to 4.4% in next fiscal
2 min read

India's merchandise imports to grow twice than exports in current financial year: RBI Survey

RBI projects imports to grow 2.5% vs 1.2% exports in 2025-26, widening trade deficit as GDP growth slows to 6.4%

"Merchandise exports and imports are projected to grow by 1.2% and 2.5% respectively during 2025-26 - RBI Survey"

New Delhi, August 7

India's merchandise imports to grow by 2 times more than exports in the current financial year, highlighted a latest survey by RBI.

The RBI conducted the Survey of Professional Forecasters on Macroeconomic Indicators, Results of the 95th Round, released on Wednesday.

The survey findings showed that merchandise imports are likely to grow by 2.5 per cent in 2025-26, which is more than double the growth of merchandise exports.

RBI stated "Merchandise exports and imports are projected to grow by 1.2 per cent and 2.5 per cent, respectively, during 2025-26"

In the next year, 2026-27, the survey noted that the merchandise exports are projected to grow by 4.9 per cent and imports by 6.0 per cent, all in US dollar terms.

Due to this trade pattern, the current account deficit (CAD) is expected to stand at 0.8 per cent of GDP at current market prices for 2025-26. For the year 2026-27, CAD is projected to rise slightly to 0.9 per cent.

On the overall economy, the survey showed that India's real Gross Domestic Product (GDP) is expected to grow by 6.4 per cent in 2025-26 and further by 6.7 per cent in 2026-27. This is below than the RBI's forecast of 6.5 per cent.

The panelists forecast GDP growth to be in the range of 6.0 to 7.0 per cent for 2025-26 and 6.1 to 7.7 per cent for 2026-27. The highest probability has been assigned to GDP growth in the range of 6.0-6.9 per cent for 2025-26 and 6.5-6.9 per cent for 2026-27.

In terms of expenditure, real private final consumption expenditure (PFCE) is expected to grow by 6.5 per cent in 2025-26 and 6.9 per cent in 2026-27. Similarly, real gross fixed capital formation (GFCF) is expected to grow by 6.8 per cent and 7.2 per cent in these two years, respectively.

On the inflation front, annual headline Consumer Price Index (CPI)-based inflation is expected at 3.1 per cent in 2025-26 and rise to 4.4 per cent in 2026-27.

As per survey, CPI inflation excluding food and beverages, pan, tobacco, intoxicants, and fuel and light, is expected at 4.4 per cent in Q2 of 2025-26. It is projected to stay between 4.3-4.5 per cent in the following quarters.

- ANI

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Reader Comments

P
Priya S
The GDP growth projections look promising though! 6.4% is still among the highest in the world. Our economy is resilient despite global slowdowns. Just need to balance trade better. 🇮🇳
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Arjun K
The inflation numbers worry me more. 4.4% next year means middle class will feel the pinch again. Petrol prices, vegetables, everything becomes expensive while salaries don't increase proportionately.
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Sarah B
As an expat working in India, I find these economic indicators fascinating. The consumption growth (PFCE) shows Indian consumers remain confident. But yes, the trade imbalance needs attention - maybe more FTAs could help exports?
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Karthik V
The capital formation growth at 6.8-7.2% is the real positive here! Shows businesses are investing in capacity. This will create jobs and eventually help exports. Long-term view is important.
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Nisha Z
Respectfully, RBI's forecasts often miss the mark. Last year they predicted 7% growth but actual was lower. We need more accurate data to make policy decisions. Still, cautiously optimistic about the economy.

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