Key Points

Despite the Reserve Bank of India's (RBI) efforts to support growth through rate cuts and other liquidity measures, growth momentum across key sectors is showing signs of weakness.

The report pointed out that most of the economic indicators data that were in double digits a year ago have now slipped into single digits, similar to the levels seen before the COVID-19 pandemic.

It stated, "India's high frequency data are now slowing with most of them moving to single digits".

The report mentions that India's bank credit growth, which was 16 per cent a year ago, has now declined to 9 per cent as of June 2025. This sharp fall reflects reduced borrowing and weaker demand in the economy.

Similarly, GST collections, which were growing at 11 per cent a year ago, have slowed to just 6.2 per cent in June 2025.

This decline indicates a slowdown in consumption and business activity.

The report also shared that export growth also remains subdued, with total exports (goods and services) showing only 6 per cent growth. This is much lower than the double-digit growth witnessed during the FY23 period.

According to data, the 12-month moving average (12mma) of several key indicators reveals a consistent downward trend. Consumption indicators also paints a weak picture.

Passenger vehicle (PV) sales have slowed to 2 per cent, compared to 7 per cent last year. The real estate sector has seen a major drop, with the value of property sales in the top seven cities declining from 28 per cent growth last year to just 4 per cent now.

Wage growth, as measured by the BSE500 companies, has halved from 12 per cent to 6 per cent.

On the industry side, growth in eight core sectors is now at 3 per cent, down from 8 per cent a year ago. Diesel consumption stands at 1 per cent, while Medium and Heavy Commercial Vehicle (MHCV) sales have declined by 3 per cent.

Goods and services exports are growing at only 6 per cent. Profit growth for BSE500 companies (excluding oil marketing companies) is now 10 per cent, compared to 21 per cent a year ago.

The report concluded that most high-frequency indicators have now moved back to single-digit growth, similar to the pre-pandemic years of 2018-19. This trend signals a slowdown in economic activity, despite continued policy support, and may require further steps to stimulate growth across sectors.

- ANI