Key Points

Goldman Sachs predicts moderate growth for Indian consumer durable firms this quarter, with B2B segments outperforming due to government projects. Cooling products like ACs and refrigerators face weaker demand amid sluggish real estate recovery. While lower commodity prices help margins, companies still grapple with operating leverage challenges. The report expects volume-driven mid-teens growth but notes macroeconomic benefits may only materialize in H2 FY26.

Key Points: Goldman Sachs Predicts Moderate Growth for India Consumer Durables

  • B2B segments benefit from govt capex and infrastructure projects
  • Cooling products like ACs see weaker demand
  • Margin pressures persist despite lower commodity costs
  • Volume growth expected in mid-teens range
2 min read

Indian consumer durable companies likely to see moderate growth in this quarter: Goldman Sachs

Goldman Sachs report forecasts slower B2C demand but stronger B2B performance for Indian consumer durables in Q1 FY26.

"We expect consumer durables and electricals companies' growth to moderate this quarter – Goldman Sachs"

New Delhi, June 20

Consumer durable companies in India are expected to report moderate growth in the first quarter of the financial year 2025-26 (April-June), according to a recent report by Goldman Sachs.

The report mentioned that the overall growth for consumer durables and electrical companies is likely to slow down in the current quarter.

It stated "We expect consumer durables and electricals companies' growth to moderate this quarter. While B2B categories have a better outlook".

While the business-to-business (B2B) categories are performing better due to strong government capital expenditure in April and continued work on major government-led projects like PM-KUSUM, RDSS, and Bharatnet, the business-to-consumer (B2C) categories are expected to see slower growth during this period.

According to the report, demand from B2C segments is still weak, and the real estate-driven demand has not yet picked up. This is especially visible in the cooling products category like air-conditioners and refrigerators, where sales have been on the lower side.

As a result, the overall growth expectations for companies covered under consumer durables have come down for this quarter.

Goldman Sachs added that although some positive macroeconomic factors like lower inflation, tax cuts, and favourable interest rates are present, their impact on demand and consumer sentiment is likely to be seen only in the second half of FY26.

The report also highlighted that companies are facing margin pressures due to negative operating leverage, which means their fixed costs remain high while revenue growth is not strong enough to offset them.

However, this margin pressure is being partially managed by lower commodity prices and selective price increases in products.

In terms of raw material prices, copper and aluminium have seen a month-on-month increase in May and June. This may lead to some restocking by companies.

However, since copper prices are still down on a year-on-year basis, the overall revenue growth is likely to be driven mostly by volume. The report expects volume growth in the mid-teens range.

- ANI

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Reader Comments

R
Rahul K.
Not surprising given the heatwave this year! Many middle-class families like mine postponed AC purchases due to financial strain. Hope the monsoon brings some relief to both weather and wallets. 🌧️
P
Priya M.
The B2B growth shows government infra projects are working. But common people are still struggling with high EMI rates despite RBI's cuts. Banks need to pass benefits faster to boost consumer demand.
A
Arjun S.
As someone in the electrical goods business, I can confirm this analysis. Our bulk orders from govt projects are up 30% but retail walk-ins have dropped. People are choosing repairs over replacements.
S
Sunita P.
Companies should focus more on affordable EMI schemes and exchange offers. Many want to upgrade appliances but need flexible payment options. Also, where are the summer discounts this year? 🤔
V
Vikram J.
The report misses the rural demand angle. In villages, we're seeing more first-time buyers of fans and coolers thanks to electrification. Companies should tap this market better with localized products.
N
Neha T.
While the analysis is good, I wish they'd compare Indian brands vs foreign ones. Our homegrown companies are doing much better in after-sales service during this slowdown. #VocalForLocal

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