Jefferies Reveals Gold Strategy: Why a 16% Price Drop Could Be Your Buying Chance

At the time of filing this report, gold futures were trading at USD 4,009.80 per ounce, according to publicly available market data.

Wood, in his popular weekly report 'GREED & fear', noted that he views the current 200-day moving average and hopes of further decline in gold prices as "a good level to accumulate more gold."

"Meanwhile, with the 200-day moving average currently at US$3,371/oz or 23.1% below the peak, this, in GREED & fear's view, is a good level to accumulate more gold if bullion corrects further, which is certainly possible," the report read.

With the gold price now at USD 4,012 per ounce, it would take a further 16 per cent decline to reach that level.

Additionally, the GREED & fear report noted that reports of job cuts in the US also made gold a compelling investment case.

"The investment case for gold will have been improved by the latest Challenger Report on US job cut announcements released today, which, in the continuing absence of the payroll data, has provided more evidence of a weakening labour market," Wood's report read.

Globally, gold prices have been edging up over the past weeks and months, driven by a positive contribution from a global rise in inflation expectations, tariff tensions, safe-haven investment, and industrial demand. The uncertainties surrounding President Trump's reciprocal tariffs plan and counter-tariffs also came as a shot in the arm to international gold prices.

Historically, gold, as an asset, is considered to be a haven as it typically manages to retain or appreciate its underlying value in times of turbulence.

The GREED & fear report has asserted that it continues to see reports indicating that gold now constitutes a larger portion of global central banks' official reserves than US Treasury securities.

"Such a development would clearly be a big deal," it supplemented.

Citing US Treasury data, Wood said foreign official holdings of Treasury securities totalled USD 3.924 trillion at the end of July, the latest data available, down from a peak of USD 4.265 trillion in February 2020.

By contrast, IMF data, according to Wood, showed that world gold reserves totalled around USD 3.858 trillion at the end of July, based on a gold price of USD 3,299 per ounce at that time.

"Since then, central banks' gold reserves have increased to 1,171.18m oz as at the end of September, the latest data available from the IMF, or US$4.48tn based on the prevailing gold price of US$3,825/oz at the end of September," the report read.

Buying by central banks world over also inched up gold prices. Central banks bought a net 219.9 tonnes of gold in Q3 2025, up from 172 tonnes in Q2 2025, according to the World Gold Council, Wood said.

At the current market price of about USD 4,012 per ounce, the value of gold reserves will have risen to USD 4.70 trillion, far exceeding the value of foreign official holdings of Treasuries at the end of July, Wood said in his report.

According to the latest World Gold Council report, the positive momentum on gold was driven by a powerful combination of an uncertain and volatile geopolitical environment, US dollar weakness and investor "FOMO" as the price climbed higher. Investors continued to pile into physically backed gold ETFs for a third consecutive quarter, in July-September 2025.

"Heightened geopolitical tensions, stubborn inflationary pressures and uncertainty around global trade policy have all fuelled appetite for safe-haven assets as investors look to build resilience in their portfolios," Louise Street, Senior Markets Analyst at the World Gold Council, had said.

According to Louise Street, the outlook for gold remains optimistic, as continued US dollar weakness, lower interest rate expectations, and the threat of stagflation could further propel investment demand.

"Gold has set record after record this year, and the current environment suggests there could be more upside gains for gold. Our research indicates the market is not yet saturated, and the strategic case to hold gold remains firmly in place," the WGC Senior Markets Analyst added.

- ANI