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Key Points

Goldman Sachs is super bullish on gold, calling it their highest-conviction long commodity. They see the price potentially hitting USD 4,300 by December 2026. The recent rally is being driven by strong demand from ETFs and central banks. Investors are increasingly using gold as a portfolio stabilizer amid global uncertainty.

Key Points: Goldman Sachs Forecasts Gold Hitting USD 4300 by 2026

  • Gold has rallied 14% since August, breaking its previous trading range
  • Western ETF holdings surged 109 tonnes in September, far exceeding expectations
  • Central bank purchases have renewed after a seasonal lull, boosting demand
  • Private investors are actively diversifying into gold amid fixed income concerns
  • Speculative positioning explains only a modest part of the recent price surge
  • The gold market is small relative to US Treasuries, allowing for large price moves
2 min read

Gold still our favourite long-term commodity; forecasts USD 4300 by Dec 2026: Goldman Sachs

Goldman Sachs reaffirms gold as its top long-term commodity, predicting a surge to USD 4,300 by December 2026, driven by strong ETF and central bank demand.

"The upside risks to our USD 4,000/toz mid-2026 and USD 4,300/toz December 2026 gold price forecast have intensified - Goldman Sachs Commodities Research"

New Delhi, October 6

Gold remains Goldman Sachs' "highest-conviction long commodity," with analysts citing strong private and institutional demand, rising equity traded fund (ETF) holdings, and central bank purchases as key drivers of the rally that has lifted the metal nearly 47 per cent to around USD 3,865 per ounce.

At the time of filing this report, gold is trading around USD 3,937 per ounce on the international market. In India, the yellow metals is trading at approximately Rs 1.21 lakh per 10 grams.

According to the latest Precious Comment report from Goldman Sachs' Commodities Research, gold has broken out of its earlier range of USD 3,200-3,450 per ounce, rallying 14 per cent since August 26.

The investment bank attributes the surge mainly to three conviction buyers: rapidly rising Western exchange-traded fund (ETF) holdings, renewed central bank demand after a seasonal lull, and stronger speculative positioning.

The report said upside risks to Goldman's mid-2026 gold price forecast of USD 4,000 per ounce and USD 4,300 by December 2026 have intensified.

"The upside risks to our USD 4,000/toz mid-2026 and USD 4,300/toz December 2026 gold price forecast have intensified" noted the report.

It says, speculative positioning explains only a modest part of the latest rally, rather it suggests a larger underlying shift in investor behaviour.

In September alone, western equity traded fund (ETF) holdings rose by 109 tonnes, far exceeding the model's prediction of 17 tonnes based on falling US interest rates.

This, the report said, signals that private investors are actively diversifying into gold amid concerns over developed market fixed income.

"The gold market is relatively small with Western gold ETF holdings worth only about 1.5 per cent of privately owned US Treasuries." the report noted, adding that even a small diversification move could drive another large leg higher in prices.

Goldman Sachs reaffirmed gold as its top long-term commodity recommendation, citing, additional price upside driven by structurally higher central bank demand, potential for further private sector diversification, and strong hedging properties during downside risk scenarios less favourable for traditional equity-bond portfolios.

The report said that investors should view gold not just as a growth hedge but as a key portfolio stabiliser amid global macroeconomic uncertainty.

- ANI

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Reader Comments

R
Rohit P
Gold at $4300 by 2026? That's massive! But honestly, in India we've seen gold prices only going up over generations. My grandmother's gold from 1970s is worth 50x today. Smart move by central banks too.
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Arjun K
While gold is great, I wish the article discussed how ordinary Indians can invest beyond physical gold. Sovereign Gold Bonds might be better for younger investors looking for digital options with interest benefits.
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Sarah B
Interesting analysis! The ETF growth of 109 tonnes vs predicted 17 tonnes shows how sentiment is shifting globally. Gold's role as portfolio stabilizer makes sense in current volatile markets.
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Vikram M
At ₹1.21 lakh per 10g, gold is becoming unaffordable for middle class families during festivals and weddings. Hope the government considers this impact on common people while celebrating these price rises.
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Michael C
The diversification argument is compelling. If even 1-2% of private Treasury holdings move to gold ETFs, we could see significant price appreciation. Good time to consider gold ETFs for portfolio allocation.
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Ananya R
As someone who recently bought gold for my daughter's future, this news is reassuring! In India, we trust gold more than any paper currency. It's

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