Key Points

The report, by Boston Consulting Group (BCG), showed that real-time Account-to-Account (A2A) payments are gaining critical mass with India’s UPI now powering over 19 billion transactions monthly.

While growth is expected to moderate to 4 per cent annually over the next five years, the industry is undergoing a foundational reset as agentic AI, digital currencies, and fintech business models are beginning to shape the next wave of expansion.

“Payments are no longer just about moving money; it is about shaping the very fabric of commerce and financial sovereignty. Real-time A2A, digital currencies, and agentic AI are expected to redefine how trillions flow not just within borders but across borders. Those who act decisively now will set the pace for the industry’s next chapter,” said Vivek Mandhata, Managing Director & Partner, BCG.

“This is a turning point for the industry. Traditional growth levers are losing force, but new drivers, including agentic systems, programmable money, and fintech innovation, are rapidly coming into focus. The players that align to these shifts now will lead the next decade,” added Inderpreet Batra, BCG Managing Director and Senior Partner and Global Head of the firm’s Payments and Fintech segment.

The findings showed that after growing at 8.8 per cent annually since 2019, revenue expansion is expected to ease to 4 per cent annually.

Transaction-based revenues remain strong, while deposit margin tailwinds slacken. The report noted agentic AI is set to influence over $1 trillion in e-commerce spending.

Stablecoins reached $26 trillion in volume, although real-world payments account for only 1 per cent of that total. The market remains heavily concentrated in facilitating crypto trading.

Further, payment fintechs generated $176 billion in revenue in 2024 and are growing at 23 per cent annually. Payments-focused fintechs have attracted over $135 billion in equity funding over the past 25 years and now make up 45 per cent of total fintech revenue.

Real-time A2A payment volumes rose 40 per cent globally in 2024. These systems now account for around a quarter of digital retail payments worldwide, even exceeding 50 per cent of transactions in selected markets like India and Brazil.

“We’re entering an era where growth and complexity go hand in hand,” said Markus Ampenberger, BCG Managing Director and Partner.

“The next winners in payments won’t just be fast adopters of technology. They will be the firms that deeply integrate new capabilities into business and operating models, and customer value propositions.”

- IANS