NewKerala.com

Key Points

ICICI Bank has lowered its Brent crude oil forecast for 2025, predicting prices between $60 and $70 per barrel. The bank cites a projected supply surplus and subdued global demand as key reasons for the downward revision. Geopolitical factors and OPEC production decisions could still influence price movements. Unless major disruptions occur, oil prices are expected to remain under pressure throughout the year.

Key Points: ICICI Bank Predicts 2025 Crude Oil Prices to Drop Below $70

  • ICICI Bank revises Brent forecast to $60-$70 range
  • Surplus supply of 1 mbpd expected in 2025
  • Weak demand and higher production to pressure prices
  • Geopolitical risks remain a potential price driver
2 min read

Global crude prices to trade with a downward bias in 2025 in range of USD 60 to USD 70 per barrel: Report

ICICI Bank forecasts Brent crude oil prices to trade between $60-$70 in 2025, citing surplus supply and weak demand as key factors.

"Global crude oil prices to continue to trade with a downside bias... – ICICI Bank Report"

New Delhi, May 23

Global crude oil prices are likely to trade with a downward bias in 2025, according to a recent report by ICICI Bank.

The bank has revised its forecast for Brent crude oil, expecting prices to remain in the range of USD 60 per barrel to USD 70 per barrel. There is also a risk that prices could fall even further to USD 55 per barrel.

It said, "Global crude oil prices to continue to trade with a downside bias.... We subsequently further lower our Brent crude oil forecasts that are expected to trade in USD 60/bbl to USD 70/bbl range over 2025."

This is a downward revision from the bank's earlier forecast of USD 65 to USD 80 per barrel.

As a result of this new outlook, ICICI Bank now expects the average crude oil price for 2025 to hover around USD 65 per barrel. This is lower than the earlier estimate of USD 72 per barrel.

The report stated that several global factors could impact the price movements, including oil production by OPEC, economic stimulus measures from China, and geopolitical developments, especially concerning Iran.

While these factors could influence oil prices either way, ICICI Bank believes the overall trend for 2025 will lean towards lower prices. A key reason for this outlook is the expected surplus in oil supply. The bank projects a net supply surplus of 1 million barrels per day (mbpd) throughout 2025.

This is because of a combination of subdued global demand and higher production from both OPEC and non-OPEC countries.

The trend has already started to show in the oil market, data from March and April 2025 points to increased supply levels as compared with the same period of 2024, when the oil market faced a deficit. The shift to surplus in 2025 is expected to weigh on prices further.

The report also highlighted that historically, a net supply surplus has a negative impact on oil prices. As a result, crude oil is expected to continue trading under pressure for the rest of the year unless there is a major geopolitical event that causes a sudden spike in prices.

In conclusion, with oil supply rising and demand remaining weak, the crude oil market is entering a phase of transition, and prices are likely to stay on the lower side throughout 2025.

- ANI

Share this article:

Reader Comments

R
Rajesh K.
This is great news for India! Lower oil prices mean less pressure on our import bill and inflation. Hope the government passes on the benefit to common people by reducing fuel prices. Petrol at ₹100/litre would be a dream come true! 🙏
P
Priya M.
While lower prices sound good, we shouldn't become complacent about energy security. India must continue investing in renewable energy and strategic oil reserves. Remember how vulnerable we were during the Ukraine war price shocks!
A
Amit S.
The report mentions China's economic stimulus as a factor. With our neighbor's economy slowing down, it's affecting global demand. India's growth story remains strong though - maybe we'll see more favorable trade terms for oil imports?
S
Sunita R.
I'll believe it when I see it at the pump! Every time global prices drop, our government increases taxes to maintain revenue. Hope this time is different 🤞 The common man needs some relief from high prices of everything.
V
Vikram J.
Interesting analysis but these forecasts often go wrong. Remember how everyone predicted $100+ oil during COVID recovery? Geopolitical tensions in Middle East or new US sanctions could change everything overnight. India should have contingency plans.
N
Neha P.
Lower oil prices could help revive our manufacturing sector by reducing input costs. Perfect timing with 'Make in India' gaining momentum. Maybe we'll see more competitive pricing for Indian exports in global markets. 🇮🇳

We welcome thoughtful discussions from our readers. Please keep comments respectful and on-topic.

Leave a Comment

Minimum 50 characters 0/50