Key Points

Foreign investors have been heavy sellers in Indian markets due to valuation concerns. However, analysts see this trend slowing as earnings improve and valuations become more attractive. The market enters the new week with cautious optimism despite recent outflows. Investors should focus on domestic cyclical sectors while monitoring upcoming Q2 earnings for direction.

Key Points: FPI Selling to Slow as India Earnings Valuation Improve

  • FPI selling reached Rs 27,163 crore in September amid valuation concerns
  • Total FII selling hit Rs 319,313 crore over 21 months through 2025
  • Improved FY27 earnings outlook and narrowing valuation gap may slow outflows
  • Domestic cyclicals like metals and autos preferred amid cautious market optimism
2 min read

FPI selling to slow down amid improved earnings, attractive valuation

Analysts predict foreign investors will reduce selling amid improved earnings outlook and attractive valuations. Learn which sectors to watch as Q2 results begin.

"A buy-on-dips strategy remains advisable, with a preference for domestic cyclicals - Ajit Mishra, Religare Broking"

New Delhi, Oct 4

With the valuation differential coming down and Indian earnings likely to improve in FY27, foreign portfolio investors (FPIs) are likely to slow down selling going forward, analysts said on Saturday.

Sustained FPI selling continued in September with the sell figure through exchanges touching Rs 27,163 crore.

However, in keeping with the long-term trend of buying through the primary market, they bought equity for Rs 3,278 crore in September.

“The selling in September takes the total sell figure for 2025 to Rs 198,103 crore. This massive selling on top of the Rs 121,210 crore selling in 2024 takes the total FII selling to Rs 319,313 crores for the last 21 months,” said Dr. VK Vijayakumar, Chief Investment Strategist, Geojit Investments Ltd.

Higher valuation in India and cheaper valuations elsewhere have been the principal drivers behind the FII strategy.

According to analysts, the market enters the new week with cautious optimism.

The RBI’s supportive policy stance and strong GST collections offer domestic comfort, though volatility could persist due to FII outflows and global headwinds. Investors should closely track Q2 earnings, particularly from IT and banking heavyweights, for cues on sectoral leadership.

“A buy-on-dips strategy remains advisable, with a preference for domestic cyclicals such as metals, autos, financials, and themes like defence, while selectively adding from other sectors. Broader markets should be approached carefully, with a focus on fundamentally sound companies. Traders should also keep a close watch on global developments, especially US macro data and FOMC minutes, which could influence near-term sentiment,” said Ajit Mishra, SVP, Research, Religare Broking Ltd.

The coming week will be pivotal as the Q2 FY26 earnings season gets underway, with IT bellwether TCS scheduled to announce results on October 9. On the macroeconomic front, the release of HSBC Services and Composite PMI, along with banking sector data on loan and deposit growth, will be closely monitored.

- IANS

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Reader Comments

R
Rohit P
Rs 3.2 lakh crore selling in 21 months is massive! But good to see analysts are optimistic about domestic cyclicals. I've been adding auto and banking stocks on dips.
D
David E
As someone who invests in Indian markets, I appreciate the detailed analysis. The focus on IT and banking earnings makes sense - these sectors drive market sentiment.
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Ananya R
While the analysis seems sound, I wish there was more discussion about retail investor protection during such volatile times. Small investors often bear the brunt of FPI movements.
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Vikram M
Strong GST collections and RBI policy are positive signs! This shows our domestic economy is resilient despite global headwinds. Time to be patient and trust the India growth story 💪
M
Michael C
The valuation gap argument makes sense. When Indian stocks become reasonably priced compared to other emerging markets, foreign money will return. TCS results will be key this week!

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