Gold and Silver Outlook: Why Experts See Upside Despite Recent Price Falls

Rajesh Rokde, Chairman of the All India Gem and Jewellery Domestic Council, told ANI that the recent correction in gold prices was expected after a one-sided rally.

"Gold has seen a one-sided rise. If I look at the last four months, it has gone from around USD 3,300 per ounce to USD 4,400 per ounce, which is nearly an increase of USD 1,100 per ounce. Over the past year, in the Indian market, prices have risen for 24 karat gold from Rs 75,000 per 10 grams to Rs 1.3 lakh per 10 grams. So, this correction was expected," he said.

He added that the correction is not likely to last long, as gold remains bullish due to strong global demand.

"Gold is currently around USD 4,100. It might correct another USD 50-100, but there's little chance of a deeper fall because central banks across the world are in buying mode," Rokde said.

He also pointed out that geopolitical tensions, U.S. tariffs, and the ongoing trend of de-dollarization are also supporting gold's strength.

"Many countries are moving toward de-dollarization, trying to reduce the dominance of the dollar, and for that, gold is seen as the safest alternative. China, being one of the largest exporters, receives payments in dollars and then converts them into gold," he explained.

Rokde further said that after Diwali, traders usually book profits and square off positions before taking a week-long holiday, which may lead to short-term profit booking. However, once trading resumes, gold is likely to turn bullish again.

"Gold has already risen so much that this correction doesn't seem very significant, even now, prices are around Rs 1.25-1.26 lakh per 10 grams. I still see strong potential for gold prices to rise further," he said.

On the other hand, Ajay Kedia, Founder and Director of Kedia Commodities, told ANI that the physical silver has nearly doubled in the past year.

"From January until now, prices have gained around 85 per cent. So, a small pullback in prices is still possible. When a commodity rises by 100 per cent, a 10-20 per cent correction doesn't really matter," Kedia told ANI.

He noted that silver has fallen around 12-12.5 per cent in the domestic market since Friday, with a sharper decline internationally.

"There could be a bit more pressure ahead, so investors should wait for now. The prices are already at extreme levels, so a free fall is unlikely. Generally, after such a big rally, prices move into a consolidation phase," he said.

Kedia added that silver should find support around Rs 1.40 lakh per kg in the domestic market, but there is no clear investment opportunity at the moment.

On gold, he said prices have dropped from around USD 4,300 per ounce to USD 4,100 per ounce in the last three sessions. In India, gold touched Rs 1.31 lakh per 10 grams for 24 karat but couldn't sustain that level.

"There will likely be continued pressure on gold, and its movement will depend on the outcome of meetings between Donald Trump and China, as well as between Russia and the US. From an investment point of view, there is currently extreme volatility. Gold could move down to around Rs 1.25 lakh, so the current levels are not suitable for buying," Kedia added.

Both experts agreed that while gold and silver may see short-term corrections, the broader trend remains positive, supported by strong fundamentals and global macroeconomic factors.

- ANI