Key Points

The 58-year-old Rahman, who is the son of former prime minister Khaleda Zia, also announced that he would be running for elections. The announcement by Rahman clearly signals that elections in Bangladesh will be a reality soon.

The caretaker of the interim government, Muhammad Yunus, has said that elections will be held by February next year. India is watching all the developments closely. With the Awami League barred from contesting the elections, all opinion polls point towards a BNP victory.

When the BNP was in power between 2001 and 2006, ties were strained with India over border security issues and allegations of harbouring anti-India terrorist groups. India had raised concerns in 2004 following the discovery of ten truckloads of weapons at Chattogram's CUFL jetty.

India had said that these were meant for separatist groups operating in the northeast. Indian officials say that following the ouster of Hasina, ties have strained with Bangladesh. However, Prime Minister Narendra Modi has made it clear that whatever the situation may be, engagement with Dhaka must continue and ties have to be normalised, the official said.

There have been engagements at multiple levels to ensure that ties are normalised. PM Modi and Yunus even met on the sidelines of the BIMSTEC Summit in Bangkok, Thailand, in April this year. With the current dispensation largely controlled by the Jamaat-e-Islami, it has been hard to crack the code and improve relations. The Jamaat is fully controlled by the ISI, and this is why diplomatic talks are hitting a dead end.

With the Awami League barred, New Delhi is looking at a scenario where the BNP comes to power and Rahman becomes Prime Minister. Although India has had problems with the BNP and Rahman in the past, the last few months have seen some alignments.

There have been backdoor engagements, but a full re-engagement could take place after the 2026 elections. India had, in 2013, raised concerns about Rahman's tilt towards fundamentalists and the ISI. He was believed to have been in close contact with fundamentalist elements in the subcontinent and was allegedly getting help from the ISI.

New Delhi hopes that Rahman may act differently now. He is more mature politically now and would work towards the restoration of ties with India in the interest of his own country. He will be mindful of too much Pakistan interference and take a leaf out of what is taking place in Pakistan-occupied Kashmir (PoK) and Balochistan.

More importantly, he would take into account the wishes of the people who are currently fed up with the uncertainty and violence that have engulfed the country. Given the current situation in Bangladesh, the most viable option for India would be to engage with the BNP.

What has enthused India more is the decision of the BNP to break away from the Jamaat. This decision aligns perfectly as India views the Jamaat as an extremist organisation. Since the ouster of Hasina, the BNP leader and Indian officials have met at various levels. An important meeting held last September was between BNP General Secretary Fakhrul Islam Alamgir and Indian High Commissioner Pranay Varma.

Fakhrul had said that the BNP would now allow Bangladeshi soil to be used against the security interests of India. India's intent to share good ties with Bangladesh was seen when Prime Minister Modi extended his best wishes after Yunus assumed the role of chief advisor.

PM Modi also followed it up with a phone call to Yunus. Despite India's best efforts, some radical elements have tried to derail relations. These are largely part of the Jamaat who have been making reckless statements against India and even providing more ground than what is needed for Pakistan.

While many within the BNP had expressed concerns about the relations New Delhi shared with Bangladesh when Hasina was in power, today there is a realisation that India is still a more reliable partner. The party leadership would bear in mind the massive uprising that led to the ouster of Hasina, and they would not want a repeat of that.

The people want strong leadership and, more importantly, a vibrant economy. For this to become a reality, the BNP understands that aligning with a strong economic and military power would be more viable when compared to a failed Pakistan.

- IANS