Key Points

The Big Four tech giants -- commonly referred to as the global AI leaders -- have been given B+ grade by UBS's latest AI progress report, reflecting strong commitment and encouraging results, but it also flagged key areas needing improvement.

The UBS report has evaluated the top four technology companies mainly across three metrics: effort, achievement, and potential.

The report notes that AI capital expenditure by the Big 4 is expected to grow 55 per cent year-on-year in 2025, continuing a robust investment cycle. However, UBS analysts project a normalization in 2026, with growth slowing to 22 per cent, as spending becomes more disciplined.

Notably, while the Big 4 accounted for 80 per cent of global AI capex in 2023, that share is projected to decline to 55 per cent by 2026.

"While spending remains strong, it is no longer as dominant," the report states, suggesting that the AI ecosystem is becoming more diversified.

Models linked to the Big 4 have generally topped the leaderboard in terms of performance and cost-efficiency.

However, it cautions that while past performance has been solid, future gains must be substantial to justify ongoing investment, especially in the race toward artificial general intelligence (AGI).

"Scoring past achievements is backward-looking," the report adds, pointing out that recent investments in AI compute could yield more advanced results in the near term.

Perhaps the biggest challenge lies in monetising AI. UBS estimates that over the past 12 months, the Big 4 invested nearly USD 115 billion in AI-related capex, resulting in an incremental USD 170 billion in revenue--a capex intensity of 67 per cent. For the next 12 months, this is expected to improve slightly to 50 per cent capex intensity, but still far above pre-AI norms of 10-15 per cent.

The report acknowledges that recent second-quarter results for 2025 show signs of a pick-up in cloud-related growth, hinting at early monetisation trends. However, UBS maintains that a stronger, broader revenue impact is needed to bring capex and returns into better alignment.

While the Big 4's performance has been credible, UBS refrains from awarding an "excellent" or "outstanding" rating, citing the need for improved monetisation and capital efficiency. "We continue to maintain a balanced exposure across semiconductors, software, and internet, while recommending adding exposure in AI laggards," the report concludes.

The assessment underscores that while the Big 4 remain at the forefront of AI development, their journey toward full commercialisation and efficiency is still unfolding.

- ANI