Key Points

A high-level conference on the situation of Rohingya Muslims and other minorities in Myanmar will be held on September 30 at the United Nations' Headquarters in New York.

Before the significant gathering in New York, the NSI quietly held a series of meetings with the main representatives of the Arakan Rohingya National Council (ARNC) and the Forcibly Displaced Myanmar National-Representative Committee (FDMN-RC) in Cox's Bazar, last month.

NSI Director General, Major General Abu Mohammad Sarwar Farid made Shah Jahan, the head of the Cox's Bazar branch, to conduct the meetings. Bangladeshi intelligence wants to see the emergence of figures who could legitimately act as spokesperson for the Rohingya in the refugee camps on their territory with a view to their return to Myanmar. However, finding genuine representatives among the political groups is proving problematic and controversial.

The task is a daunting one given the links between some potential candidates and drug trafficking gangs, the jihadist radicalisation of others, and the fact that the ARNC and the FDMN-RC are accused of being too close to Dhaka.

Earlier, the NSI was focused on monitoring the refugee camps for instability and potential external exploitation, rather than on advancing repatriation efforts, especially as it was also reportedly used for domestic political surveillance against dissidents.

The NSI forcibly repatriated several thousand young Rohingya men. They were then forced by Myanmar's military junta to fight against the Arakan Army, one of the ethnic rebel groups involved in the civil war ravaging the nation. This was a radical restructuring initiative as the situation served as a pretext for the Arakan Army to carry out numerous abuses, further deteriorating the humanitarian situation and pushing new refugees to cross the border every day.

The Rohingya refugees now viewed the Arakan Army as a bigger threat than the military junta. Violence in the camps diminished and the armed Rohingya Islamist groups, such as the Arakan Rohingya Salvation Army (ARSA) and the Rohingya Solidarity Organisation (RSO) repositioned themselves. NSI is using the Rohingya armed groups in compelling the Arakan Army to take back refugees.

On September 15, the Arakan Army confirmed that the military junta has launched a pre-emptive offensive aimed at retaining control of Sittwe and Kyaukphyu, which it still holds in the Rakhine State. The junta continues to shell Arakan Army controlled Ponnagyun and Pauktaw townships with artillery. Both towns are part of the Sittwe District.

It may be recalled that Bangladesh's Ministry of Foreign Affairs (MoFA) had organised 'Stakeholders' Dialogue: Takeaway to the High-Level Conference on the Rohingya Situation,' a three-day international conference in Cox's Bazar on the eighth anniversary of the Rohingya crisis from August 24-26.

Inaugurating the conference, Muhammad Yunus stressed that the Rohingya crisis must remain firmly on the global agenda. He advocated dignified and safe return of the Rohingya refugees. Yunus said that there was a "moral responsibility" to end ethnic cleansing of the persecuted Rohingya minority in Myanmar.

Under Sheikh Hasina's government, Bangladesh repeatedly tried to facilitate the repatriation of Rohingya refugees to Myanmar, but these efforts were unsuccessful due to Myanmar's lack of cooperation, regional geopolitical complications, and the refugees' well-founded fears for their safety.

More importantly, Bangladesh-Myanmar tensions have been spiralling in recent years and the US presence in the region may further escalate tensions. The Rohingya repatriation may hit rough weather with a divergence of national interests and a major fracture is thus conspicuous.

(The writer is an expert on South Asia and Eurasia. He was formerly with Manohar Parrikar Institute for Defence Studies and Analyses. Views expressed are personal)

- IANS