Key Points

Bangladesh watchers say that the situation in reality is worsening with radical groups calling the shots.

Even parties such as the Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP) is fed up with the developments and its leaders are doubting whether or not a free and fair election would be held. There are also doubts whether an election would be held at all. While the political class are likely to iron out their differences taking the larger picture into mind, the worry for Bangladesh is the rift between the student leaders and the advisers of the interim government.

The August 2024 uprising led to the ouster of Sheikh Hasina and now what threatens the country is a battle between the students and the advisers of the interim government.

The students who led the August uprising went on to form the National Citizen Party (NCP). They said that they would contest the elections, likely to be held in February 2026. Many within the NCP have become extremely suspicious of some advisers in the Muhammad Yunus led interim government. They feel that some of them are negotiating with the political parties to secure an escape route from the government. While at first, the allegation appeared slightly soft, the aggression was out when NCP leader Sarjis Alam said that the only escape that remains open for the advisers was death.

Experts and watchers are seeing this as a clear sign of something big to come. It seems like a Nepal like scenario and we would not be surprised if the NCP led by the students take to the streets once again like they did in August.

In addition to all this is the ISI's play in the country. The ISI has the Jamaat-e-Islami doing its dirty job in Bangladesh. For the ISI, a country in chaos would be suitable since an unstable Bangladesh threatens the security of India.

The ISI looks at everything with an India perspective and while helping terror groups set up camps and modules, it would also like chaos in Bangladesh.

Further the student leaders are growing suspicious of some of the advisers in the interim government. They feel that these persons are joining hands with the political parties to secure themselves. They are getting used to the comforts and would like to continue enjoying them after elections are held.

The student leaders who are part of the NCP also feel that the interim government has not delivered on promises the way they would have liked it to be. They had hoped that following the ouster of Sheikh Hasina, normalcy would be restored and they would have good administration that would take the country forward.

However since the August uprising and the installation of Yunus, Bangladesh has been in the news for all the wrong reasons. There is large scale radicalisation, the Islamists have run amok, the economy is failing, the ISI is calling the shots and the persecution against the minorities has risen to an all time high.

The NCP is pushing for the elections to be held. However now it doubts if those who are calling the shots including the Jamaat are interested in holding elections at all.

Further, even if elections are held, there are doubts if it would be free and fair. It is not just the NCP that has doubts, but it lingers on in the minds of the people as well. Many have said that they would not go out and vote since it would be an unfair election. All these developments and the tensions within the administration clearly indicate that another uprising could be on its way.

- IANS