Over 46 cr adolescents globally will be obese by 2030, face many health disorders: Lancet

In the second analysis on adolescent health and well-being since 2016, the Commission estimates that by 2030, one-third of adolescents in high-income countries in Latin America, and the Middle East will be overweight, underscoring the shortcomings in combating adolescent obesity.

The analysis, based on data from the 2021 Global Burden of Disease study, projects that 46.4 crore (or 464 million) adolescents globally will be overweight or obese by 2030 -- 143 million more than in 2015.

There will still be over 1 billion of the world's adolescents (aged 10–24 years) living in countries where preventable and treatable health problems like HIV/AIDS, early pregnancy, unsafe sex, depression, poor nutrition and injury collectively threaten the health and well-being of adolescents.

Notably, in 2030, 4.2 crore years of healthy life will be lost to mental disorders or suicide (20 lakh more than in 2015).

"The health and well-being of adolescents worldwide is at a tipping point, with mixed progress observed over the past three decades,” said Commission co-chair, Professor Sarah Baird, from George Washington University in the US.

"While tobacco and alcohol use has declined and participation in secondary and tertiary education has increased, overweight and obesity have risen by up to eight-fold in some countries in Africa and Asia over the past three decades, and there is a growing burden of poor adolescent mental health globally,” she added.

Further, the Commission also identified several significant new threats to adolescent health such as climate change and the shift toward a more digital world.

Today's adolescents are the first generation who will live their entire lives with the average annual global temperature that has consistently been 0.5 degrees Celsius higher than pre-industrial levels.

And by 2100, 1.9 billion adolescents will live in a world that is expected to warm to around 2.8 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial times, bringing catastrophic risks to their health such as heat-related illnesses, reduction in food and water quality and availability, and a rise in mental health conditions related to climate events.

The projections suggest that, without political will, policy initiatives, and financial investments, there will still be more than 1 billion adolescents living in multi-burden countries in 2030.

Baird urged for increasingly "investing in the health and well-being of young people” to safeguard the “collective future”.