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West Asia Crisis Puts India's Oil Supply at Risk, Refiners May Gain

The ongoing West Asia crisis and disruptions around the Strait of Hormuz pose a short-term risk to India's crude oil supply chain, given the region's critical transit role. India remains heavily reliant on Middle Eastern imports, with nearly half its crude basket sourced from there. However, the country is mitigating risks by tapping strategic inventories and increasing purchases of discounted Russian oil. Morgan Stanley notes that if disruptions persist, India's refining sector could benefit from tighter supply and significantly higher product margins.

Key Points: India's Oil Supply Risk & Refiner Gains Amid West Asia Crisis

  • Supply chain vulnerability via Strait of Hormuz
  • 46% of India's crude from Middle East
  • Inventories provide short-term buffer
  • India ramps up Russian oil purchases
  • Refiners may gain from higher margins
2 min read

West Asia crisis raises oil supply risks for India, but refiners could gain: Morgan Stanley

Morgan Stanley report warns of India's oil supply risks from West Asia crisis but sees potential gains for refiners from higher margins.

West Asia crisis raises oil supply risks for India, but refiners could gain: Morgan Stanley
"40-50 per cent of India and China's oil needs pass through the Strait of Hormuz - Morgan Stanley report"

New Delhi, March 16

The ongoing West Asia crisis and disruptions around the Strait of Hormuz could create short-term stress for India's crude supply chain, though diversified sourcing and inventories should help cushion the immediate impact, according to a report by Morgan Stanley.

The brokerage noted that India remains exposed to Middle East oil flows because a significant share of its imports transit the region. "40-50 per cent of India and China's oil needs pass through the Strait of Hormuz," the report said, highlighting the vulnerability of Asian energy supply chains to disruptions in the Gulf.

India also sources a large portion of its crude from the Middle East. The report estimates that "46 per cent of India's crude basket is imported from the region," underscoring the country's reliance on Gulf producers for its refining requirements.

However, Morgan Stanley said inventories and alternative sourcing routes should prevent an immediate demand shock. "Crude and petroleum product reserves across Asia Pacific range between 30 and 200 days," while countries including India are already tapping alternative suppliers.

To mitigate supply risks, India has been increasing purchases of discounted Russian oil and exploring other sources. "India is also ramping up purchases of Russian crude (particularly Urals) after the US waived sanctions on Russian oil imports for 30 days," the report noted, adding that New Delhi is also in talks with Iran to secure safe passage for tankers carrying LPG and crude. "It is also in talks with Iran to secure safe passage for more than 20 tankers." the report noted.

Despite the supply concerns, Morgan Stanley believes India's refining sector could benefit if the disruption persists. Tight supply and export curbs across Asia have pushed refining margins higher. The report said gasoline, diesel, jet fuel, naphtha and fuel oil prices have risen 18-30 per cent in the past week, reflecting the tightening market.

Refiners with diversified crude sourcing, particularly large integrated players and state-run oil marketing companies, are likely to see improved profitability from higher product cracks. Morgan Stanley estimates that "a USD 1-1.5/bbl rise in gross margins for refiners would imply 15-30 per cent earnings upside in 2026."

Overall, the report said the duration of the West Asia disruption will be critical for the outlook. While inventories and alternative crude sources provide short-term buffers, prolonged supply interruptions could intensify stress across Asia's energy and industrial supply chains.

- ANI

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Reader Comments

R
Rohit P
So the refiners might actually profit from this crisis? That's a bit concerning. While it's good for the companies and stock market, I hope the government ensures these gains don't come at the cost of the common man through higher fuel prices. We are already paying so much for petrol and diesel.
D
David E
Interesting analysis. From a global perspective, India's pivot to Russian crude is a significant geopolitical shift. It shows how nations are navigating the complex post-sanctions landscape. The 30-day US waiver is a crucial detail.
A
Aditya G
The report mentions 30-200 days of reserves. That's a huge range! Which end of the spectrum is India on? Transparency on our actual inventory levels would help calm public anxiety. Good that we are talking to Iran for safe passage, diplomacy is key.
S
Sarah B
The environmental angle is missing here. Every crisis pushes the conversation about fossil fuel dependency. This should accelerate India's investments in solar and wind. Energy independence is the ultimate security.
K
Karthik V
As someone in logistics, this hits home. Fuel price spikes have a cascading effect on the cost of everything – from vegetables to online deliveries. I hope the "short-term stress" remains truly short-term. The government must be ready with contingency plans for essential supplies.

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