West Asia conflict could push crude oil prices to $150 per barrel: Report
New Delhi, June 11
Global crude oil prices could surge to as high as $150 per barrel if hostilities between the US and Iran resume in earnest, according to a report.
According to analysis by Oslo-headquartered energy research and intelligence firm Rystad Energy, which said the latest escalation between the US and Iran has pushed the April ceasefire to its most difficult moment so far, triggering a rise in oil prices and a decline in financial markets, including US equities.
According to the report, as much as 11.8 million barrels per day (bpd) of oil production remains shut in across six Gulf producers, making the conflict the most significant supply disruption seen in modern energy markets.
"At this stage, it is too early to say whether the current escalation marks a full resumption of hostilities or a dangerous but still containable episode," said Jorge Leon, Senior Vice President and Head of Geopolitical Analysis at Rystad Energy.
He noted that uncertainty surrounding the conflict was reflected in oil price movements, with Brent front-month crude rising sharply to around $94.5 per barrel before easing back towards $93 per barrel.
Leon said the immediate impact of the disruption could be moderated by record releases from strategic petroleum reserves, lower crude imports by China and the continued movement of around 5 million bpd of crude through Saudi Arabia's Yanbu export route, bypassing the Strait of Hormuz.
"The direction of travel is now more uncertain, and the next few days will be critical in determining whether diplomacy can reassert itself or whether the conflict moves into a more sustained escalation cycle," Leon said.
In addition, the report stated that probability of a near-term diplomatic agreement has diminished from Rystad Energy's earlier assessment of around 40 per cent a few weeks ago.
As a result, oil price volatility is expected to remain elevated until there is clearer evidence that the ceasefire can hold or that diplomatic efforts regain momentum.
According to the report, the West Asia conflict has already erased around 1 billion barrels of cumulative crude supply from global markets in the three months since the first shots were fired. Moreover, the volume is equivalent to nearly two-and-a-half times the entire US Strategic Petroleum Reserve.
On Thursday, international oil benchmark Brent crude traded more than 2 per cent higher at around $95 per barrel. While US West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude jumped 4 per cent to $93.64 per barrel.
— IANS
Reader Comments
I wish our leaders would focus more on renewable energy. Every time there's a conflict in West Asia, we panic about oil prices. We have abundant solar energy in India—why can't we accelerate electric vehicle adoption and solar power? This dependency on foreign oil is hurting us economically and strategically. 🚗⚡
Living in the US, I see both sides. But the impact on India is double—higher import costs and a weaker rupee against the dollar. The report mentions 11.8 million bpd shut-in—that's a staggering amount. Diplomacy must prevail, but sadly, political egos often get in the way of economic sanity.
The report says 1 billion barrels of supply have been erased in 3 months. That's insane. But I'm also thinking about our farmers—higher diesel prices mean higher input costs in agriculture, which will push food inflation up. The common man will suffer the most while oil companies and speculators make profits. 😠
As someone working in finance, the volatility is terrifying. But let's be realistic—Rystad's $150 projection is worst-case. India should use this as a wake-up call to build strategic petroleum reserves and diversify import sources. We can't keep being hostage to Middle Eastern geopolitics.
I'm worried about my family's budget. Petrol prices already take up a big chunk of our monthly expenses. If this happens, we'll have to cut down on other essentials. The government must step in with subsidies and tax relief. Also, why aren't we pushing public transport more?
We welcome thoughtful discussions from our readers. Please keep comments respectful and on-topic.