Japan Votes in Leadership Referendum on PM Takaichi's Future

Takaichi's Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) has set a relatively modest benchmark for success, saying its coalition with the Japan Innovation Party (JIP) is seeking a simple majority in the 465-seat House of Representatives. However, the ruling party is also aiming for a result that could allow the LDP to secure a majority on its own.

If the LDP wins at least 233 seats independently, it would mark a decisive victory for Takaichi, strengthening her authority and consolidating her power base in the Lower House. However, a failure by the LDP-JIP coalition to secure a combined majority could force Takaichi to step down as prime minister, potentially plunging Japan into another period of political instability, with four prime ministers in roughly three years, according to The Japan Times.

Pre-election media surveys indicated that the LDP was on track to secure a majority on its own, while the opposition Centrist Reform Alliance (CRA), a newly formed bloc of the Constitutional Democratic Party of Japan and Komeito, was expected to suffer significant losses.

Polls remained favourable to the LDP despite several controversies involving Takaichi, including remarks interpreted as endorsing a weaker yen, the party's unclear position on cutting the consumption tax on food, and unscripted comments related to the Japan-U.S. alliance, the report said.

During the campaign, Takaichi pledged to increase government spending in key industries, revive Japan's global economic competitiveness and tighten immigration policies.

For the JIP, also known as Nippon Ishin no Kai, the election is seen as a test of its ability to expand beyond its traditional base in Osaka. The party has struggled to gain traction nationally in recent elections.

Unlike the LDP's past arrangements with long-time coalition partner Komeito, the LDP and the JIP did not coordinate candidates in single-seat districts. In Osaka, the two parties are contesting all 19 single-member constituencies.

The JIP is also contending with simultaneous local races in Osaka, where Governor and party leader Hirofumi Yoshimura and Mayor Hideyuki Yokoyama are seeking voter support for a proposal to merge the city's wards into a metropolitan government. The initiative is central to the party's long-standing goal of making Osaka a backup capital for Japan, The Japan Times noted.

On the opposition side, the CRA fielded candidates in more than 200 single-seat districts but was projected to lose seats overall. The alliance has set its objective as becoming the largest force in the Lower House.

The CRA criticised Takaichi's decision to call a snap election with lawmakers only a third of the way through their four-year terms. It also cited recent market volatility as evidence of investor concerns over her fiscal policies, particularly proposals to cut the consumption tax on food, which unsettled bond markets.

The performance of smaller parties, including the Democratic Party for the People and Sanseito, is also being closely watched. Although there were rumours of potential cooperation with the ruling bloc, both parties mounted aggressive campaigns against Takaichi, the report said.

The campaign unfolded amid freezing temperatures and heavy snowfall in eastern and northern Japan, complicating outdoor campaigning. It marked the first time in 36 years that a Lower House election has been held during winter.

A total of 465 seats, of which 289 are from single-seat districts and 176 through proportional representation, are being contested. Media projections are expected shortly after polling stations close at 8 p.m., The Japan Times reported.

- ANI