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Venezuela Crisis Won't Hurt India's Trade or Companies, Says Crisil

Crisil Ratings asserts that the geopolitical crisis in Venezuela is unlikely to materially affect India's economy or the credit profiles of its corporations. This is due to Venezuela's small share in global crude supply and India's minimal direct trade exposure with the country. India sources only about 1% of its crude oil from Venezuela, and exports to the nation constitute less than 0.1% of India's total exports. The rating agency will continue monitoring the situation but sees no significant near-term disruption.

Key Points: Venezuela Crisis: No Major Impact on India, Says Crisil

  • Minimal crude oil price impact
  • Insignificant direct trade volume
  • Low corporate credit risk
  • Diversified export sectors
  • Long-term oil price softening possible
2 min read

Venezuela crisis to have no impact on India, its companies: Crisil

Crisil Ratings states US action in Venezuela will not materially impact India's global trade, corporate credit quality, or crude oil prices.

"We do not anticipate any material near-term impact of the Venezuela situation on crude oil prices - Crisil Ratings"

New Delhi, January 13

Crisil Ratings does not expect the US action in Venezuela to have any material impact on India's global trade or the credit quality of Indian corporates.

Even in the event of any escalation that disrupts crude oil production in Venezuela, the country's relatively small share (1.5 per cent) in global supply means it is unlikely to cause sustained turbulence in crude oil prices, shielding India Inc from any material adverse impact, the rating agency said in a credit alert on Tuesday.

The price of Brent crude oil has remained almost stable over the past few days, hovering a tad above USD 60 per barrel.

Besides, India's direct trade with Venezuela is also insignificant, accounting for less than 0.25 per cent of its total imports.

Crude oil is the primary import from Venezuela, with India sourcing 1 per cent of its crude oil requirements from the South American country, the rating agency said.

In fact, crude oil and allied products accounted for over 90 per cent of the Rs 14,000 crore total imports from Venezuela in fiscal 2025.

Overall, India imports almost 85 per cent of its crude oil requirement, which makes it sensitive to global price movements and supply challenges.

"While we do not anticipate any material near-term impact of the Venezuela situation on crude oil prices, investments for increasing crude oil production in Venezuela, which has vast untapped reserves, could boost oil supply globally and lead to softening of crude oil prices over the medium to long term, which could be a positive for India Inc," it said.

India's exports to Venezuela were under Rs 2,000 crore in fiscal 2025, making up less than 0.1 per cent of its total exports.

Exports are diversified, spanning sectors such as pharmaceuticals, ceramics, textiles, and two-wheelers.

Pharmaceutical products accounted for India's exports to Venezuela at Rs 900 crore in the last fiscal year, representing less than 0.5 per cent of India's total pharmaceutical exports.

Exports of ceramics, textiles and two-wheelers were modest.

To sum up, Crisil Ratings does not expect any material impact on the credit profiles of Indian corporates engaged in business with Venezuelan customers, given their modest exposure. "That said, we will continue to closely monitor the developments."

On January 3, 2026, the United States launched military action in Venezuela and captured Venezuela's then-president Nicolas Maduro.

As per publications by Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries, Venezuela has crude oil reserves of 303 billion barrels, accounting for 19 per cent of global reserves.

- ANI

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Reader Comments

P
Priyanka N
While the analysis is reassuring, I hope the government and companies aren't becoming complacent. 85% import dependency is a massive strategic vulnerability. We should use this as a wake-up call to accelerate our transition to renewables and boost domestic production, not just breathe a sigh of relief.
A
Aman W
Interesting point about the long-term potential if Venezuela's reserves are tapped. Could be a game-changer for global oil supply in a few years. For now, stable prices are a blessing for the common man. Petrol prices have been painful enough!
S
Sarah B
The pharmaceutical export number (Rs 900 cr) caught my eye. Even though it's a small percentage, for the companies involved and for patients in Venezuela, it's significant. Hope the humanitarian situation there doesn't disrupt access to these essential medicines.
K
Karthik V
Crisil's analysis is solid, as always. The numbers speak for themselves - less than 0.25% of total imports. Our trade is wisely diversified. The real concern remains the broader Middle East situation, not Venezuela. Good, data-driven piece.
M
Michael C
It's a bit concerning to see such a major geopolitical event being dismissed so quickly. While the direct trade impact is low, global instability has a way of creating ripple effects. "Monitoring the situation" is the right approach. Let's not celebrate just yet.

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