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US Strikes on Venezuela Won't Shake Oil Market, Say Experts

Former Chief Economic Adviser Arvind Subramanian states the recent US strikes on Venezuela are unlikely to significantly impact the global oil market. Energy expert Narendra Taneja supports this view, noting Venezuela's crude is heavy and not widely processed, making it a minor player in global supply. The US military action captured Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro, with President Trump announcing plans for a transitional administration. Experts suggest increased US involvement could eventually boost Venezuelan production, adding supply rather than disrupting it.

Key Points: US Venezuela Strikes: Limited Impact on Oil Prices

  • Limited oil market impact expected
  • Venezuelan crude not widely processed
  • Venezuela a small global supplier
  • US aims for transition in Venezuela
2 min read

US strikes on Venezuela unlikely to impact oil market: Ex Chief Economic Adviser Arvind Subramanian

Experts Arvind Subramanian and Narendra Taneja analyze why the US military action in Venezuela is unlikely to disrupt global oil supply or prices.

"I don't really see any immediate impact on the price of oil. - Narendra Taneja"

Chennai, January 6

There will not be much of an impact on the global oil market due to the recent US strikes on Venezuela, stated former Chief Economic Adviser Arvind Subramanian in a conversation with.

Reacting to the developments, Subramanian said that he was not aware of the specific details of the US action. However, he added that prevailing market opinion suggests limited consequences for oil prices.

"I know nothing about it, but the only thing I can say is that people say there won't be much of an impact on the oil market," he said, indicating that the situation is unlikely to disrupt oil supply or pricing in a significant way.

In a major military operation over the weekend of January 3-4, 2026, the United States captured Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro and his wife, Cilia Flores, after a large-scale strike in Caracas. This action followed months of escalating tension between the US and Venezuela.

President Donald Trump said on Saturday that no nation in the world could achieve what America has achieved.

Trump, who addressed a press conference from Palm Beach, Florida, said the United States will run the country "until such time as we can do a safe, proper, and judicious transition".

Earlier in a conversation with ANI Energy policy expert Narendra Taneja also said that Venezuela is not likely to cause any immediate disruption to global oil prices.

He noted that most refineries around the world are not designed to process Venezuelan crude, which is heavy oil.

He said, "I don't really see any immediate impact on the price of oil. Because Venezuela may have the largest reserves of oil, but they are a very small player in terms of supplying oil to the global system. They produce hardly 9 lakh barrels of oil per day. Bulk of that is exported and goes to China. America is now moving in, American companies are moving in. Chances are that probably Venezuela will start producing 3 million barrels of oil every day within next one year, which means that oil will start flowing into the global supply system, which is not bad news."

- ANI

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Reader Comments

P
Priya S
While the oil market impact seems minimal, the geopolitical precedent is worrying. A sovereign nation's leadership being captured? This sets a dangerous tone for international relations. The focus should be on diplomacy, not force.
R
Rohit P
Taneja's point is key. Our refineries in Reliance or IOC aren't set up for that heavy crude anyway. The real story is if this leads to more US oil on the market, bringing prices down. That would be a relief for my petrol budget! 🚗
S
Sarah B
Respectfully, I find Subramanian's "I know nothing about it" comment a bit odd for a former CEA. Even if the market impact is low, experts should have a more informed view on such a major global event.
V
Vikram M
The bigger question is long-term stability. If American companies ramp up production to 3 million barrels, it could shift global dynamics. India should use this to secure better long-term deals for energy security. Jai Hind!
K
Kavya N
As a common citizen, all I care about is the price at the pump. If experts say no immediate impact, that's a sigh of relief. But governments should also focus on renewable energy to reduce this dependency. 🌞

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