US Sanctions Pause on Iran, Russia Oil to Ease Crude Market: Experts

Foreign affairs expert Robinder Sachdev states the US suspension of sanctions on Iranian and Russian oil currently at sea is a market-driven move to soften crude prices by potentially releasing around 150 million barrels. However, defence expert Dhruv Katoch warns that India will still face severe gas shortages in the immediate future despite this development. Meanwhile, Middle East expert Waiel Awwad notes Iran is selectively allowing tankers, like those from India, to pass through the Strait of Hormuz, presenting a diplomatic opportunity. The regional volatility continues as US President Donald Trump issues threats against Iran, and Iranian military officials vow further attacks.

Key Points: US Sanctions Waiver on Iran, Russia Oil to Soften Crude Market

  • US suspends sanctions on Iranian oil at sea for 30 days
  • Waiver also applies to Russian oil shipments
  • Move could release ~150M barrels into market
  • India may still face severe gas shortages
  • Iran not blocking Strait of Hormuz for all nations
4 min read

"US removing sanctions on Iran and Russia will soften crude oil market," Foreign Affairs Expert says

Experts analyze US suspension of sanctions on Iranian & Russian oil at sea, its impact on global crude prices, and implications for India's supply.

"If that comes into the market, definitely yes, it will help soften the crude oil market. - Robinder Sachdev"

New Delhi, March 22

Foreign Affairs Expert Robinder Sachdev said that as the US suspended sanctions on Iran for its oil that is at sea, it will help soften the crude oil market.

Sachdev, while talking to ANI on Saturday, said that it is the cold market logic which America is using.

He said, "It is, of course, very interesting to see that America is saying that sanctions on Iran will be suspended for 30 days for the Iranian oil which is at sea. Now, what this means is that there are many ships which are carrying Iranian crude which are heading to some destination, or many ships which are being used only for storage; these ships are not moving much. So there's probably around 150 million barrels of oil in these Iranian-origin ships. If that comes into the market, definitely yes, it will help soften the crude oil market."

"So that's simply the cold market logic which America is using. It has also given a waiver, as we very well know, for 30 days for Russian oil that is at sea. Even the Russian oil, which is at sea, means again Russian shadow fleets which are carrying crude oil. Either they're heading for some destination, or once again they're just sitting in the sea somewhere at water waiting for the next direction and they're actually acting like storage tanks," he added.

On the United States temporarily lifting sanctions on Iranian crude oil and petroleum products, Defence expert Dhruv Katoch said that, regardless, India will suffer very severe shortages in the immediate future.

He said, "Now, today is the 22nd day of the war, and the United States has finally allowed Iranian crude to be shipped. That means they have removed Iranian crude from the sanctions. But that doesn't solve the problem. Because what has happened is that, as far as Iran is concerned, the statement which they have issued is that they have no floating tankers. So, that is the only thing which can actually be sold out. If there are any floating tankers somewhere in the Indian Ocean, then they can be diverted and put up for sale...We have adequate reserves for the moment. Regarding gas, I think that we are going to suffer very severe shortages in the immediate future. Though over a period of time, we will overcome that problem also," he said.

Middle East Expert Waiel Awwad said that the closure of the Strait of Hormuz is only for the nations that are siding with the US and Israel.

He said, "Iran has allowed all the tankers of India to pass through the Strait of Hormuz, and they have already made it clear they are not blocking the Strait of Hormuz. They are only blocking for those countries that support the United States in this war. This gives another opportunity for India to cement the relationship with Iran despite the fact that the current scenario in the region is volatile, and we don't know how far this war will go."

Meanwhile, US President Donald Trump on Sunday warned Iran of obliterating its power plants if it fails to open the Strait of Hormuz.

Trump gave Iran precisely 48 hours for the job.

US Central Command said that they were clear in their objectives of eliminating Iran's ability to project power against Americans. It said, "U.S. forces remain centred on very clear military objectives in eliminating Iran's ability to project power against Americans, and against its neighbours."

Also, Major General Seyed Majid Moosavi, head of Iran's IRGC Aerospace Force, said on Saturday (local time) that Iran now dominates the skies of the occupied territories.

Moosavi said that the upcoming waves of attacks in those skies would leave the US and Israel 'dumbfounded'.

- ANI

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Reader Comments

R
Rohit P
Good analysis. The 30-day waiver seems like a tactical move by the US to control prices, not a policy shift. But the expert Katoch is right - we still face immediate shortages. Our strategic reserves need to be much larger.
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Aditya G
The real story is India's diplomatic tightrope. Iran is letting our tankers pass. We must strengthen that relationship without angering the US. Our foreign policy needs to be for our benefit first, always.
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Sarah B
While the short-term price relief is positive, the volatility is concerning. Trump's 48-hour ultimatum is reckless and could blow up the entire region. Stability is what global markets need, not more threats.
V
Vikram M
Waivers for 30 days? This is just a temporary band-aid. The underlying geopolitical crisis remains. India should use this window to fast-track deals with other suppliers and invest more in renewables. Jai Hind!
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Karthik V
With respect, I think the article gives too much weight to what experts "say." The proof is in the petrol pump price. Let's see if this actually brings down costs for the common man next week.

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