US Green-Card Freeze a Warning for Indian IT: GTRI Report

US green-card freeze a warning for Indian IT industry against wider curbs: GTRI

New Delhi, October 9

The US suspended the companies from the Permanent Labour Certification Programme (PERM) on October 8, affecting Tata Consultancy Services (TCS), Infosys, Wipro and HCLTech from India, along with Microsoft, Adobe, Cognizant and Capgemini.

The report said the freeze affects PERM-based green-card sponsorship, which allows employers to sponsor foreign workers for permanent residency. However, it does not itself stop companies from applying for H-1B visas under the usual rules or cancel the existing H-1B status of workers.

While the immediate disruption to IT projects could be limited, the action creates uncertainty for employees seeking permanent residency and companies planning their long-term staffing in the US.

"The U.S. green-card sponsorship freeze is a warning for India's IT industry," the report said, adding that the industry should prepare for possible restrictions extending beyond green-card sponsorship to H-1B hiring, skilled-worker mobility and outsourcing.

The report highlighted India's dependence on the US market, which accounted for USD 119.7 billion, or 54.1 per cent, of the country's total software and IT-enabled services exports of USD 221.4 billion in FY2025-26.

However, India's changing IT delivery model could help companies limit the immediate impact of the restrictions.

According to the report, 91.7 per cent of India's software and IT-enabled services exports globally were delivered from India, while 8.3 per cent were delivered by professionals working at overseas client locations.

Applying this global split to US exports, the report estimated that around USD 109.8 billion worth of services were delivered from India and USD 9.9 billion through on-site work. It cautioned that this was an estimate based on worldwide delivery shares rather than US-specific figures.

The report also noted that the freeze appears selective, as major technology companies such as Amazon, Google, IBM, Meta, Apple, Intel and Accenture were not included in the action.

The restrictions could also encourage multinational companies to expand engineering work and specialised teams at their Global Capability Centres (GCCs) in India, potentially creating jobs and increasing India's role in technology development.

GTRI recommended that Indian IT firms diversify export markets, strengthen delivery from India and expand local hiring in the US where needed. It also called for greater focus on artificial intelligence and higher-value technology work to reduce the industry's vulnerability to sudden changes in US policy.

— ANI