US expects Hormuz shipping to recover within 30 days
Washington, June 15
Commercial shipping through the Strait of Hormuz could return to normal within 30 days under a new US-Iran framework agreement, senior US officials said on Monday, outlining plans for toll-free navigation, priority passage for oil and gas tankers, and a US-backed maritime coordination mechanism aimed at restoring one of the world's most important energy corridors.
The officials said a newly signed memorandum of understanding between the United States and Iran provides for reopening the Strait of Hormuz and lifting the naval blockade that had disrupted maritime traffic and unsettled global energy markets.
"We're quite explicit in this MOU. The straits will be open toll-free for 60 days, and we expect that to become part of the final agreement as well," a senior US official said during a background briefing.
US officials said shipping activity had already begun increasing following the agreement.
"We're already seeing a substantial increase in traffic," one official said, adding that commercial movements were expected to accelerate over the coming days.
According to officials, vessel traffic, which had fallen sharply during the crisis, is expected to rebound quickly.
"We've been getting as many as 25 ships through a day. Now that we're through, I think that'll probably go to maybe 40 to 50, pretty quickly," a senior official said. "By Friday, everything will be fully open, I think."
The administration indicated that energy cargoes would be among the first to benefit from the reopening.
"The prioritization will be on the heavy tankers, you know, the gas, the oil. So, I think that will actually flow very quickly," the official said.
Officials disclosed that Washington had established a maritime coordination system through Bahrain and the US Central Command to facilitate the return of commercial traffic.
"We have a maritime freedom coordination mechanism that we've set up in Bahrain through Centcom, and that will help work with all the commercial ships," a senior official said.
The officials said the reopening would take time because some shipping companies remained cautious after weeks of conflict, mining threats and security concerns. However, they expressed confidence that normal conditions would return relatively quickly.
"I think it will return to normal pretty quickly, definitely within 30 days," a senior official said.
The senior US official argued that maritime traffic through the strait had continued despite the crisis and that efforts by Washington and its partners had reduced Iran's leverage over the route.
"Over the last couple of weeks, we've been getting over 7 million barrels a day out of the strait," a senior official said, adding that the operation helped convince Iran that it "did not have control" of the waterway.
The official said the blockade had exerted significant economic pressure on Tehran and contributed to the negotiations that resulted in the memorandum of understanding.
US officials said restoring maritime traffic was a key objective of the agreement because of its importance to global trade and energy supplies.
"We're going to be super aggressive towards getting this open as quickly as possible, because that's great for the world economy," a senior official said.
— IANS
Reader Comments
Finally some stability! As someone working in the shipping industry, this blockade was a nightmare. Our tankers were stuck for days, demurrage costs skyrocketed. But honestly, trusting US-Iran agreements? Been burned before. Let's see if the 60-day toll-free period actually materializes.
India should have its own alternative routes by now. Relying on US-Iran deals for our energy needs is risky. Remember 2019 when similar tensions spiked? We need to fast-track Chabahar port development and diversify suppliers. Strait of Hormuz is a chokepoint, and we're too dependent. 🤔
As an American, I'm skeptical about this timeline. The US military claimed similar things after the 2019 attacks on Saudi Aramco. 30 days seems optimistic given the mining threats and Iran's history of using the Strait as leverage. But if it works, global oil markets will breathe a sigh of relief.
Toll-free navigation for 60 days? That sounds too good to be true. Shipping companies will rush in, but what happens after? The US-Iran MOU seems fragile. India should push for our own maritime security pact in the region, not just rely on Centcom's coordination from Bahrain. #StrategicAutonomy
The '7 million barrels per day' figure is interesting. If that was happening during the blockade, how effective was the blockade really? Seems like both sides were posturing. For India, lower crude prices would be a blessing - our inflation is already hurting common people. Let's hope this holds!
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